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FOMC (10bps priced in), BIG week ahead, MSFT, META, AMZN, APPLE / CXMT / UBS $ scandal / Crude down 5%

sc0172
Jul 27
2 min read

  • Horrific wild fires in France, Spain, Portugal, UK, Sicily and Canada

  • Last Thursday recorded the most commercial flights 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 in one day 153,359 worldwide over 24hrs on Flightradar24, the world's largest public flight-tracking network.....

  • Iran updates : a pause in US-Iran fighting cut the geopolitical risk premium, with Brent sliding around 4-5% towards $92 a barrel as Iran signalled it would halt attacks provided Washington did the same, though the Strait of Hormuz remained contested and Houthi strikes on Saudi installations continued

  • Markets : a lot going this week, possibly a KEY week ahead - major test for markets and sentiment for Q3 (thread), FOMC on Wed (most likely unchanged, about 10bps priced in for a hike), big Techs reporting (MSFT, META, AMZN and APPLE), UST yields a tad softer again going into month-end with 10's 4.63%, SMI also testing new highs, Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumps over 470% in market debut, UBS 'USDCHF' scandal about to get bigger, SpaceX unloved, Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio (private eq tapped out?)

  • Bonds have been in a 6-year long bear market, with long-term treasuries seeing capital losses of -50% off the peak. Even after factoring in interest received and reinvested (but also adjusting for CPI), those who invested in TLT 20 years ago would be flat-to-negative on their investment.

  • UBS Dollar scandal much larger than expected, the cat is out of the bag!


always trying to keep things under the hood...maybe not this time



Probably a sign private equity is at least partly tapped out, NVDA has to fund their own bubble..








Shocking, horrific wild fires












 
 
 

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