FED to end QT shortly / Trump vs Xi 'escalation' / EV's retreat / No pension reform, French ahead of no conf vote
- Stéphan

- Oct 15
- 4 min read

French PM backs suspending Macron's pension reform in bid to save government
Trump: China purposefully not buying our soybeans, and causing difficulty for our soybean farmers, is an economically hostile act, We are considering terminating business with china having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade, as retribution - Truth Social... Friday like this, Sunday like that, and back again...
Markets : OpenAI’s hyperscaler ambitions are being put to the test with its latest megadeals, Fed Powell: Downside risks to US job market have increased, may be approaching end of balance sheet contraction (QT) in coming months (you know what comes next..), ''The US simply cannot afford a major, sustained equity drawdown! That’s easily the biggest threats to the political system, the social fabric, and everything in between. (Chart Source: GS)'', Argentina, the US Treasury and the $20bn ‘swap’ (Argentina rarely pays back, in time at least..), Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards. Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns of ‘willingness to cut corners’-FT >> plenty of equity bears out there (tariff tantrum, valuations, but dip was bought pretty easy again yesterday), and plenty of bulls as FED to cut, stop QT, debasement, seasonal bullish factor etc), no matter what precious metals continue higher, GOLD impressive ! but not only gold..
Geopolitics : Poland says Putin could strike ‘deep into Europe’ as downed Shahed drone unveiled, Israel 'to open Rafah crossing' in U-turn after Hamas returns more bodies - as Netanyahu issues warning
Trade : China has warned that it will retaliate if President Trump moves forward with his threat to impose a 100% tariff, signaling a potential escalation in trade tensions. - WASHINGTON POST, US President Trump On NATO Spending: ‘Very Unhappy’ With Spain - Thinking About Giving Spain Trade Punishment Through Tariffs
Chinese Containership ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Reaches UK via Arctic Route in Record 20 Days, Istanbul Bridge transited Northern Sea Route in 5 days at 17 knots! Just 20 days from China to UK
#RAREEARTHS What on earth are rare earths? Why do they matter so much? Why do they nearly all come from China? 10mins well worth looking at (Video below)
Swiss exports to the USA have fallen by approximately 22% since July 1, 2025, with the most dramatic drop occurring after the new 39% US tariffs took effect on August 7, 2025. The value decline is about CHF 873 million, dropping from just under CHF 4 billion in July to CHF 3.1 billion in August—making this the lowest Swiss export level to the US since late 2020. Gold and watch exports saw especially sharp declines, with gold exports declining by 99% month-on-month and Swiss watches by 24%, respectively
JPM : Dimon 'not levels to be buying stocks back'... Despite ongoing authorization, JPM slowed net buybacks to roughly $2–3B this quarter with CET1 ~14.8%—and its equity risk premium near ~1% (two-decade lows) makes repurchases less attractive versus building capital and leaning into loan growth and tech spend
The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in; even China shows cracks. (WSJ)
Jamie Dimon said it makes “some sense” to own gold in today’s market, though he won’t say if it’s overpriced. Speaking at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference, the JPMorgan Chase CEO noted gold could rise to $5,000–$10,000, calling it one of the few times it’s “semi-rational” to hold. He also warned that asset prices are high “across almost everything.”
dMacro/dBS on X: "The US simply cannot afford a major, sustained equity drawdown! That’s easily the biggest threats to the political system, the social fabric, and everything in between. (Chart Source: GS) https://t.co/zFrsrPBp2Z" / X
#rareearth 'trade war' - well worth 10mins of your time - VERY interesting Ed Conway on X: "🎥 What on earth are rare earths? Why do they matter so much? Why do they nearly all come from China? And how worried should we be about the latest chapter in the trade war? These and more questions answered in my latest primer👇 https://t.co/VKMw3CscJE" / X
Malte Humpert on X: "Chinese Containership ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Reaches UK via Arctic Route in Record 20 Days 👉 Istanbul Bridge transited Northern Sea Route in 5 days at 17 knots! 👉 Just 20 days from 🇨🇳 to 🇬🇧. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad @DrPJSullivan @gCaptain https://t.co/oASz1GTmOP https://t.co/aaxrnU8W4k" / X
EndGame Macro on X: "The ultra long U.S. Treasury bond coming within inches of a golden cross is signaling that the world’s largest bond market is beginning to price in the end of the tightening era. When long duration Treasuries start to base and push higher, it means investors no longer see https://t.co/5E1KmFQ2c3" / X

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