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European NATO / IMF downgrades global growth / WTI back to $91 ahead of 2nd round of Islamabad talks / SPX !

  • sc0172
  • 5 days ago
  • 4 min read

  • Is the geopolitical world, global growth, physical commodity supply chain, inflation (high earnings expectations) in a better place than pre 27th Feb ? the recovery (short-covering) has been rather swift ....SPX500 back to all time highs already..

  • Iran war update :  2nd round of talks in Islamabad, Israel and Lebanon met for their first high-level talks in more than 30 years in what the Israeli ambassador to the US called a “victory for sanity,” even as officials played down hopes for an end to the war with Hezbollah., Trump told Fox Business he sees the war as “very close to over,” even as Washington prepares to let a sanctions waiver for Iranian oil expire this weekend. More than 20 commercial ships not calling at Iranian ports have transited the strait in the past day, the WSJ reported. An Iraq-bound supertanker that earlier aborted its crossing is now sailing through the waterway, Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases. Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March

  • Markets : The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.5% over the next twelve months, EU NatGas prices back to 27th Feb levels, PIMCO bought all $400 million of bonds issued Monday by a Blue Owl Capital Inc. private credit fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter, IMF downgrades global growth as you would expect >>> SPX500 highest close 6'978, all time highs were 7'002, basically we are there already (time for a hedging trade again BUY downside, sell some futures etc), doesn't look like a time to chase higher anymore... CTA's bought huge, short gamma 6840+ et voilà.. WTI could settle 80-90$ for a while, physical prices though still MUCH HIGHER, and shortages of PHYSICAL diesel, kerosene deliveries are a serious possibility within 1-2weeks in parts of Europe, and Asia

  • Europe is quietly preparing a backup plan for NATO in case Trump pulls the U.S. out or reduces its support. The idea is to make the alliance far more European-led—sometimes called a “European NATO”—so the continent can still defend itself. Source: WSJ

  • "We've had all kinds of financial crises, but we've never really had a successful cyber attack on a large financial utility or financial institution." - Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell >>> so you know exactly what is worrying them big time currently..!

  • Scott Bessent said Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court ruling. He also called Anthropic’s Mythos model a revolutionary step that will keep America ahead of China in AI

  • China Tells Maersk and MSC to Withdraw from Panama Canal Ports


  1. US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks Amid Hormuz Blockade

    • The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, while a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz worsens a global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic prospects. 

    • The objective is to hold more discussions before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. One proposal is to return to Pakistan, where initial negotiations were held last weekend, though other venues are being considered, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

    • US President Donald Trump said talks could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan, the New York Post reported. That would build on a marathon yet inconclusive session in Islamabad on Saturday night. And in a Fox Business interview, Trump reiterated he sees the war as “close to over.”











More UK infrastructure !


wars (higher volatility, daily swings on the back of Trump's tweets...!...) are good for big banks..













 
 
 

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