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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

BoJ unch..but / BoAFM survey U.S stocks / ECB /Empire / DE:LNG Terminal / U.S debt ceiling next

  • JPY slides about 2% as the BoJ maintains the YCC at this meeting with 9-0 votes >>> Kuroda expects core CPI around 3% now and falling to 2% on next fiscal year, and Bank of Japan’s balance sheet assets to GDP now at record levels, approaching 140%, BUT overall language : pretty flexible, and eventually they will 'have' to move anyway, so beware

  • Kuroda (who's is leading in April..) : YCC is fully sustainable

  • ECB 'sources' yesterday afternoon, suggested they started to think about slower pace of hikes in Feb >>> bund yields dropped 10bps on this, U.S yields lower on very weak U.S empire (lowest since Mai 2020)...and this morning : ECB’s Villeroy: Lagarde's 50-Bps Guidance Is Still Valid, “I was quite surprised” by the story published by Bloomberg that the pace of tightening may slow down - BBG

  • German's Habeck confirming in Davos that Leopards going to UKR, they will build a 3rd LNG Terminal (this is big news again) and basically that they make do without Russian energy, and Germany wants inflation back down to 5% by year-end

  • OPEC+ will do whatever it takes to keep the oil market stable - OPEC sec gen

  • Short-term sentiment data these days.....Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Jan: 16.7 (prev -23.6) and take ..NY Empire Fed manufacturing -32.9 after -9 consensus, then exact opposite with..The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history

  • HSBC: China’s reopening is “unlikely to prevent global downturn in early 2023.” Inflation is likely to be too high to warrant US rate cuts. “We believe the USD's correction lower has room to run (joining those changing their view this week..), core bond yields will fall, and credit markets and EM have value.”

  • Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister

  • British wine named one of the 'best in the world' in blind taste test!

  • Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper

  • #MSFT which employs more than 220,000 people, including 6,000 in the UK, is said to be contemplating cutting roughly 5% of its workforce, which if accurate would equate to approximately 11,000 jobs.

  • UK Finance Minister Hunt on inflation data: ''We need to stick to our plan to bring inflation down'' >>> UK inflation dips only marginally from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December


Markets :

-BofA: Investors Most Underweight on US Stocks Since 2005 Home / Twitter - chart >>> pretty interesting as we sit at 4K SPX500 level, the make or break levels

-Bonds higher, weak USdata, ECB chatters yesterday and BoJ overnight wiht 10y JGB's trading back down towards 40bps

-USDJPY higher, bringing CROSSJPY's higher with it overnight. USDollar overall softer

-SPX500, are you in the break up or break down camp ahead of 4K ?... that IS the only question from here on. Much more going on underneath though, sectors, China, commodities, quality names and so on. For choice, the longer VIX remain soft, the more chance we have to 'grind higher'..

-Crude steady to slightly higher, lots of chatters SPR demand below + China re-opening, #XAGUSD chart below - interesting levels (another make or break..)


Jim Grant: «Japan is Perhaps the Most Important Risk» (

What the Debt Ceiling Is and Why It Matters | Time

Jeremy Hunt ‘planning a slimmed-down spring budget with no tax cuts’ | Conservatives | The Guardian

Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper -sources | Euronews

Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history." / Twitter

"Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental/valuation process (we do).. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a recession, or not" Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson

German economy minister wants inflation under 5% by end of year - Welt TV (

Tesla’s Brand Is Tanking, Survey Finds (

Tech bosses could face jail after Tory MPs revolt on bill - BBC News

Tech bosses could face jail time for failing to protect children online, after the government conceded to a backbench rebellion

Army of pest-munching ducks keep South African vineyard blooming - CNA ( Great pics and what a great way of getting on without pesticides

How Does the Panama Canal Work? - Bing video that's a brilliant video

and this one

Ukraine: Military hardware donations weaken Army - UK chief - BBC News

Russia needs opportunity to rejoin an international system, Kissinger says (

British sauvignon blanc wine from Gloucestershire vineyard named one of the 'best in the world' | UK News | Sky News That's something to celebrate folks !!

Shopper Rebellion Against Higher Prices Helps Slow Inflation - WSJ

Silver #XAGUSD

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