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Asymmetric warfare, huge cover up of infos / GS on ME GDP contraction / UBS / Credit distress / Trump-Xi meeting key

  • sc0172
  • 6 days ago
  • 4 min read

  • Markets : US/Iran ceasefire before Trump meets Xi in China ? (most probably the aim..).., All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500, and credit woes (financials, Blackrock etc down 20-30pct YTD too), it's not about crude oil only!, Bahrain cuts output at world's top aluminium smelter, Outflows from US financial stock funds are breaking records, according to Bank of America, Grace period over for UBS (CHF 10bn will be needed by 2027) >>> nothing like a disastrous war to make an U.S president realize the value of multilateralism?.. ?, Trump’s best move right now might be to declare victory, stop fighting start/support negotiations to open the strait of Hormuz, little or no confidence this can happen, but other options look much worse !! >>> overall equity markets 'want' to short cover on some good news such as 'war is over, Trump won', while they may rally short-term, credit wounds are huge, the ME-DUBAI financial losses will be enormous, an thus potential future ME investments in the U.S (mainly) and elsewhere may be cancelled or at least renegotiated.. Crude, WTI is still above $100...and that IS an expensive problem for the global economy, together with all the other 'commodity' issues, incl LNG

  • Dubai halted flights at its main airport after a drone caused a fire at a nearby fuel tank. Donald Trump demanded other countries help secure passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to disrupt the region’s energy markets. Trump said his planned summit with Xi Jinping may be delayed if Beijing doesn’t assist in unblocking Hormuz, Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran/FT, IRGC warned major U.S. corporations in region to evacuate (U.S military bases, then the Strait of Hormuz, and now U.S corporations..some kind of guerilla warfare on global scale), Massive coverup happening right now. Israel has turned off public satellites to hide the apocalyptic damage, one possible outcome..: Iran’s military is devastated. Regime survives. The Strait stays closed until both sides find a face-saving off-ramp. Trump declares victory. Khamenei declares resistance. Oil drops. Nuclear program set back. We’ll be back here in 10 years...

  • The US military is terrified of Iran's asymmetric warfare. General Anderson admits Iran has "enormous" capabilities, citing drone swarms and suicide speedboats that could sink US warships just like the USS Cole. "Buckle up, because this is going to get worse."

  • Some kind of doom loop..US has entered the Doom Loop; meaning the economic, social, geopolitical & monetary problems are too big & too time consuming to solve compared to the scale & rate they are building up...

  • CNBC on new inflation numbers: "It shows that even before the war, there's some heat especially when it comes to services inflation, and that's going to be ultimately the message to the Fed"

  • Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine. Flood of redemptions threatens to stall one of Wall Street’s most important sources of growth >>> UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%. That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008






Goldman Sachs on the Gulf: Qatar and Kuwait could each see their GDP contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through April, resulting in a two-month halt of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would fare better given their ability to re-route oil flows away from critical Hormuz waterway, but would still likely see GDP drop by about 3% and 5%.









































 
 
 

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