AI token prices down 50% in 3mos / PHP all time lows / China deleveraging, record low yields / FED minutes next
- sc0172
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read

Fed minutes in focus: Investors will scrutinise the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting for signs of how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation against a cooling labour market. Markets currently price around a 35% probability of a Sep rate hike
Iran update : Trump takes Iran hard line as Hormuz tensions set new normal
Markets : crude firmer yet again Brent +$90, bond yields a little softer overnight 10's UST 4.68%, China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years ('households deleveraging cycle!!¨¨ , property prices down 30-50% since 2019 record highs, record low yields etc.. / Thread) U.S Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history & Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade (charts below), PHP hits an all time lows vs USD, THE AVERAGE AI TOKEN PRICES ARE NOW DOWN OVER 50% OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS (good for users, should be negative for stock prices of related companies..) >>> few selling-hedges put on last 2 days in QQQ as UST yields hit new slight higher highs and USD rallied, all small moves, but reversed overnight
The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT (already has..)
Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge
Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn (Thread) - once upon a time Germany exported card to China, now reversing!)..
UK inflation accelerates: CPI rose to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, driven largely by higher energy costs, increasing pressure on the Bank of England and potentially limiting the scope for further rate cuts
Shanghai Macro Strategist on X: "The year 2026 marks the official beginning of Chinese households’ deleveraging cycle. The definitive end of the household debt supercycle lies at the heart of the secular weakness in consumption—and, by extension, the prolonged decline in consumer-oriented equities. https://t.co/Sj5F1igiuB" / X
Nic on X: "The ECB is worried about the AI bubble. Not because of Europe's stocks. Because of America's. Euro area households hold ~€440B in US tech, mostly via ETFs they think are diversified. If the Mag7 corrects, redemptions force funds to sell, deepening the crash. A US AI fallout https://t.co/BGyh5Z0uOa" / X
Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany, where the China shock is becoming a serious industrial threat. Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn. At the same time, China is exporting more than 1mn cars a month, while weak domestic demand forces its https://t.co/zR3fSf2oUb" / X
Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "📈 The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT *Hyperscalers are now issuing huge amounts of debt, at the exact same time governments already have enormous financing needs. 💰 Amazon and Alphabet issue bonds in both dollars and euros while the https://t.co/UsW2AcV629" / X
Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: China China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years 📉 📉 https://t.co/Vp5wrgQXW6" / X
Barchart on X: "Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/sY7nS5yOCW" /
Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade 🤯 👀 https://t.co/sOPdHt5mYs" / X

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