AI spending risks global consequences -BIS / China AI strategy ? / OpenAI IPO delay.. / IMM USD long : 7y highs
- sc0172
- Jun 29
- 3 min read
China’s AI strategy could be to undercut OpenAI and Anthropic by releasing highly capable foundation models for free, driving the marginal cost of advanced AI intelligence toward zero. With abundant, low‑cost electricity, China could then “export compute” at scale, much as it once did with manufactured goods. The main bottleneck today is access to cutting‑edge chips, but if domestic players like Huawei close that gap, we may enter a world where, instead of paying Western incumbents hundreds of billions for AI services, users access comparable intelligence at negligible cost. In your view, what are the economic and geopolitical consequences of such a shift — and would it be ultimately beneficial or harmful?...
Markets : ..Excessive AI spending risks global financial consequences, BIS warns, US equity futures rose after the US and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other before peace talks resume in Doha this week. The move signals de-escalation after days of tit-for-tat strikes that tested a fragile truce. Oil pared gain, USD still looks good to ok, but watch out IMM positioning (not that it is all that counts) + quarter-end flows
U.S administration is working to unwind decades of sanctions on Iran as part of a deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. The US has authorized the sale of Iranian oil and fuels and pledged to unlock billions in frozen funds, with a 14-point memorandum of understanding including the removal of all US sanctions on Iran on "an agreed upon schedule".
Putin says Russia will press on with front-line campaign regardless of Ukraine proposals, and Putin details Russia’s fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes
Japan targets more than doubling real growth to over 1% in economic blueprint
Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #forex shows a post-FOMC jump in the IMM $USD long to a seven-year high: Dollar buying resumed in the week to 23 June, with the greenback gaining 1.5% following the Fed's hawkish shift and political turmoil in the UK that triggered sterling selling. The aggregate IMM net https://t.co/8v5NIcvt9z" / X
MAKE IT STOP !!!! meta has created enough problems around the world, without having to make more folks loose money now, a reminder that 85% of users LOSE money on prediction markets platforms, and that 3/4 of payouts go to the 2% of users..
Key points:
Memory remains a critical AI bottleneck, but the trade is no longer one-way. AI demand continues to support memory suppliers, but higher memory and storage costs are starting to affect customers across the value chain — from consumer devices to hyperscaler capex.
The “AI tax” is becoming visible in consumer technology. Recent price increases from Apple, Xbox, Sony and Nintendo show that the memory squeeze is moving beyond semiconductor earnings into hardware pricing, affordability and upgrade cycles.
The next phase of AI may favour efficiency over pure capacity. As AI becomes more expensive to build and run, market focus is likely to shift toward companies and technologies that reduce inference costs, improve data movement, lower power and cooling needs, optimise software usage, and enable more on-device AI
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