Russia does not rule out the possibility that OPEC+ could extend its current 7.7 million barrels per day of production cuts into next year
Biden won by 19 points at Biden 54% vs Trump 35% - YoouGov poll – It’s Biden’s to loose still – nothing much changed after last night’s final debate, hard to see that this debate changed anyone’s voting intention, did Trump move the needle for many of the undecided ? still 10days to go, expect more noise from Trump, if he feels he didn’t win the debate…
Michel Barnier said the new free trade agreement “was in reach” and UK sources said it could be struck in “two to three weeks”
NUS start-up develops 60-second breath test to detect COVID-19 – can’t produce/provide this fast enough !
Turkey left rate unchanged versus 175 bps hike consensus, they signaled it last week, what was CBRT thinking.. TRY didn’t like that, hit new lows vs USD, just short of 8
U.S. Monitor: People in aggregate have the wherewithal and confidence to suggest strong holiday shopping season; The contrast between goods retailers and service-providers, though, will be stark
Markit: "While some services firms in Germany have been hit by new restrictions and increased uncertainty around a ‘second wave’, the dec line in service sector activity has so far been quite limited.." "...whilst at the same time the country’s economic performance is being buoyed by a strong showing from manufacturing.". Germany Oct. Flash Composite PMI drops slightly to 54.5, less bad than 53.3 expected as Manufactory PMI beat w/ rise to 58 vs 55 expected. BUT Services PMI dropped to 48.9, 4mth low, and way worse than expected 49.4., it’s another V (chart) – Saxo : It is getting K-shaped between manufacturing and services here in Europe. One thing is clear, China is clearly rebounding strongly without any doubt given the German manufacturing PMI.
UK retail sales surged in September
Fed balance sheet hit fresh All-Time High. Total assets rose by $26bn from prior week, to $7.177tn on QE. Treasury securities rose by $25bn to $4.50tn. Now balance sheet equal to 37% of US's GDP vs ECB's 66% and BoJ's 137% (chart)
SPX 3400 continue to hold (3415 lows yesterday), 50dma and those ‘gamma’ levels, back higher on stimulus hopes and perhaps fact that, having tried the lows a few times this week, markets didn’t really budge (market is convinced we’ll get a stimulus pre or post U.S Election, which matters for short-term sentiment, but not really on a medium term basis… CSI in China has been in a narrow range since July (chart), DAX also held lows in that summer box..
10y UST yields 84bp – not broken up yet, but supply + Biden sweep, markets expects 1.2% perhaps pretty quickly in November/into year-end…hard to argue against that! – 200dma just around here 85bp (chart)
WTI stays super range/above $40 – do we soon get a move higher ?
USD remains soft(er) on any signs of slight risk-on, a strong Biden win, including Senate and the market will price in a massive fiscal deal 4-5-6trn eventually, and a weaker USdollar overall. USDMXN interesting long-term chart….back to 19 levels seen in March on a fiscal deal ?..
https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/batteries-will-be-a-high-growth-industry-as-green-transformation-accelerates-26082020 Saxo’s P. Garnry - Batteries will prove a high-growth industry as green transformation accelerates- Summary: The lithium-ion battery and energy storage industry is fast-growing, driven by high growth in the adoption of electric vehicles and energy storage systems to absorb excess energy from renewable energy. In this research note we provide a list of companies with exposure to this multi-decade theme and lay out the demand drivers for the industry. This is a core theme of the future, less carbon-intensive economy and something most investors should contemplate adding to their long-term portfolio.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/22/-paul-tudor-jones-says-he-likes-bitcoin-even-more-now-rally-still-in-the-first-inning.html?__twitter_impression=true Paul Tudor Jones says he likes bitcoin even more now, rally still in the 'first inning'
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/nus-covid-19-test-kit-60-seconds-minute-breathonix-13319362 NUS start-up develops 60-second breath test to detect COVID-19…early days, won’t help over next few weeks or months even – but…let’s get on with it! https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/nus-start-develops-60-second-breathalyser-test-covid-19
USDMXN - back towards 19 on a U.S fiscal deal ?
Market expectations on a Biden sweep . if for 10y UST yields to hit 1.2% or so..
German Manuf flash PMI - it's a V
U.S existing home sales – up nearly 10pct again - that's more than a V
As long as this goes on………..risk likely to do ok...they are probably going to have to buy a fair amount of TBills and issuance into year-end…
Are Dem's or Repuplican's good for markets (long-term) ?