PVM daily bits / IEA report / TSLA / EURO / Risk COVID-19 drags on for longer

Updated: Apr 29



Coronavirus set to knock oil demand growth to slowest since 2011


  • United Airlines said the airline is extending cancelations of flights to Hong Kong, which had been set to resume on February 21, and for flights to mainland China, that had been set to resume on March 28. Flights will resume starting April 24….

  • China's Hubei province saw a record rise in the coronavirus death toll as a new diagnostic method is used, with leaders in the province replaced for their handling of the outbreak….strangely enough the change in ‘tone’ of the message from WHO yesterday was a little different, so they probably knew China was going to revised higher….China replaces top Hong Kong affairs official, Zhang Xiaoming, with a senior leader pulled from retirement

  • Eurozone industrial production fell 4.1% YoY in December, matching the biggest decline since the Great Financial Crisis. Italy’s population fell for a fifth year in 2019 and deaths exceeded births by almost 212,000

  • ECB's de Cos: Policy to remain highly accommodative for prolonged period of time, Coronavirus Does Keep Balance Of Risks To Downside

  • Charlie Munger: "My best advice, I think you would be happier if you reduced your expectations.”

  • IEA: Cuts 2020 Oil Demand Growth Forecast By 365,000 Bpd To 825,000 Bpd On Coronavirus Outbreak, Lowest Since 2011 - Global oil demand set to see first quarterly decline in over 10 years, IEA says

  • Tesla said it had "observed excessive corrosion" on bolts in the power steering of affected Model X vehicles, and is recalling thousands of cars in the US and Canada


Markets

  • EURUSD breaking through 1.0880/00, could well call for a move towards 1.0500 (clearly not on the cards when we started 2020 – recall all or most big banks bearish $ / bullish EMG..), in fact EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY all lower (chart). USD remains firm no matter what these days (risk-on or off). New ATH’s in GOLDEURO too..USDBRL new highs again. SNB may well have to cut further soon, little priced in…

  • WTI back under pressure on the overnight virus news, similarly GOLD back up, Bonds firmer

  • Equity markets made new highs again yesterday, including DAX, although all a little weaker/softer overnight on the virus news. This whole situation could go on longer than many been thinking/pricing in last 2weeks…taking some P on long equities may well be advisable (just as many have not seen any risk whatso-ever currently…all commentators have been stunned by the recoveries and momentum higher, and most/all are now bullish -. beware



Are massive inflows into sustainable funds lifting tech shares?


Eurozone industrial production fell 4.1% YoY in December, matching the biggest decline since the Great Financial Crisis………… Lagarde (on the same day)….The ECB sees signs of bottoming...what a farce



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