• PVM

PVM BITs | Latest US-China trade talks

Headlines

President Trump said if the Fed cut rates by 100bp and restarted QE the economy would take off “like a rocket”, ahead of the FOMC tonight.. “If Powell sound too optimistic, it might spark market concern the next move is a hike,”, on the other hand, if Powell presses the point that inflation is running low, “he runs the risk of confirming market expectations that the next move is a cut and imply that that cut is not far in the offing,”….given Trump and other chatters, market is undoubtedly expecting a dovish one for tonight…


France’s “yellow vests” and trade unions protest. Security is high in Paris ahead of demonstrations involving both trade union members and anti-government demonstrators known for wearing fluorescent vests. The latter have dismissed president Emmanuel Macron’s plans for reforms, including tax cuts, as “blabla.”…total of 17bn will be spent, highest increase in purchasing power for many, in decades…hardly ‘blablabla’


Meanwhile euro area unemployment dropped to a new low of 7.7% in March. ECB staff projections looking way too pessimistic one again – PICT


Google’s immediate problem is e-commerce searches skipping them and originating on Amazon. Long-term problem is the internet moving away from the phone screen and over to voice - Alexa and Siri becoming formidable…


Tariffs at the start of US-China trade dispute are a major obstacle at finish line – WSJ


Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% q/q (1.2% y/y) in Q1, faster than expected as Italy exits recession (just) and Spain over-delivers again (chart)


Berkshire Pledges $10B To Help Occidental Buy Anadarko

U.S. Pending Homes Sales (Mar) 3.8% vs 1.5% Expected, April Conference Board consumer confidence 129.2 vs 126.8 expected, Chicago PMI confirmed that the slowdown is accelerating in the US (chart), as the index tumbled to 52.6 from 58.7, and sharply below the 58.5 estimate. It was also the lowest print since January 2017



Markets

USD – always hard to get an exact picture – but it seems market has been increasing bets/longs on the USDollar lately (chart) – a dovish FED leaning on weak inflation might trigger some $ downside (worth noticing weak Chichi PMI y’day too), most likely will try to say as little as possible, citing still weak global picture, inflation, and even a few US data weaker of late


Equities breaking higher, had a small correction lower yesterday on ‘Google’, all right back up on Apple, AMD and few others, futures trading through highs again


Bonds trading in tight ranges still/near highs

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