• PVM

PVM BITs | Japan's Golden Week

With markets closed for 10 days are we going to see some middle of the night FX volatility…?


3M huge cut in pre-market yesterday, now sees FY19 EPS at $9.25-9.75 vs. prev. $10.45-90, Exp. $10.53


Turkey’s hard currency reserves fall despite billions in borrowing. Net foreign currency reserves fell to $26.9bn in the week to April 19, down from $28.7bn in the previous week and Turkish Central Bank removes pledge for further tightening if needed, dragged TRY lower


INR : RBI may join global peers in buying more gold…a new version of QE ?..

US March prelim durable goods orders +2.7% vs +0.8% expected….so much for rumours of weaker data (that said, durable goods orders show weakest yearly gains In 2 years despite MoM rebound, and they will be revised)– we get Q1 GDP today, few months ago expectations were sub 1pct, now back to 2.1%, rumours have it around 2.4%.. US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-20: 230K, surprise weaker though (exp 200K; R prev 193K)


U.S. data remains strong and U.S. rates are ‘’miss-priced’’ because of weakness in Europe and other places, hard not to stay short EURUSD, long USD/Europe


Samsung this week said it intends to spend $116 billion by 2030 in order to beat the likes of Intel, Qualcomm, and TSMC for a lead role in logic chip manufacturing.


ECB's de Guindos keeps door open to more QE 'if needed'


Chinese group sparks oversupply fears in steel market - Concern grows as country’s biggest producer Baoshan suffers profits plunge


Tesla says it won’t be profitable until Q3, and it only has itself to blame


Trump's offshore oil-drilling plan sidelined indefinitely, as Interior Department grapples with recent court decision to block Arctic drilling


Markets


USD firmer overall, though USDJPY/CROSSJPY’s weakened (JPN holiday for 1week or so now), USDTRY nearer to 6 on CB comments, AUDUSD retested the Jan lows (pre flash crash), Q1 US GDP today (expected to be strong though), but could trigger another USD buying phase if it comes out closer to 2.5%, FOMC next week


Bonds pretty quiet


Equities initially dragged down by 3M/Dow, though overall held well, any excuse around further USD strength, and perception if PBOC does less to stimulate economy (as mentioned on Monday), EMG (TRY, ARS, ZAR, BRL all getting into levels where further weakness will be noticed), will be key going forward, keep an eye on SHCOMP too for the mood in China


WTI would appear to have stalled $66.50 area, key support $64/65 now

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