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PVM BITs | Deutsche Bank starts merger talks with Commerzbank

Updated: Apr 18, 2019


Deutsche Bank starts merger talks with Commerzbank, many will push the reflection further regarding UBS and CS, and many others for that matter in Europe

Headlines


May's Brexit deal lives: Northern Irish kingmakers report 'good' talks with government, talks ongoing over week-end, expect some updates today. Only our compromise can break the Brexit impasse.


China Reveals the Fiscal Tricks Needed to Deliver Record Tax Cut. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang specified on Friday a range of creative accounting measures that he’s planning to deploy in order to deliver a record tax cut in support of the nation’s slowing economy.

DB Slok: global trade started improving in late January

Empire Fed manufacturing 3.7, Exp. 10.0, Last 8.8 - No let-up in the stalled manufacturing sector. US continues to run at two different speeds. Manufacturing sluggish and service sector robust and firm. JOLTs back to cycle highs! job openings 7.581MM, Exp. 7.225MM


"This is no normal cycle; yields are lower than they would normally be because policy makers in Japan & the Eurozone are completely out of monetary ammunition from a longer-term perspective" – BofA


Heathrow boosts traffic for 28th month in a row…


German breakeven rate shows green shoots in the euro-area economy

China’s foreign minister makes nice in Brussels. Meeting with his EU counterparts, Wang Yi will discuss ways to promote multilateralism and prepare for next month’s China-EU summit. His visit comes in the wake of an EU report labeling China a “systemic rival.”


Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting to end US-China trade war may be pushed back to June, sources say. Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay state visits to Italy, Monaco and France from March 21 to 26, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang made the announcement Monday.


Ministers urged to class social media addiction as a disease to tackle 'health crisis' among young people



Markets


S&P making new highs/momentum slowing though and VIX expiry tomorrow (worth keeping an eye on, it tends to move around badly on and around expiry). Similar picture in European equities (see chart below). SHCOMP 10months highs



VIX on lows around 13 from 25 in early Jan, FX and FI vols crushed as well (however, as much as it may last little longer as CB’s crushed FI vols on their dovish stance since early Jan, whoever has some hedging to do for the next 3-6months, these levels are pretty cheap, including Dax vols, which also got crushed)


Yields stick near lows across board – pretty much


WTI holding up near highs/Held $54-55 area now key support


USD slightly softer, Ruble making new highs for the year, INR holding up well ahead of election on 11th April. GBP, yet another big week, it doesn’t seem that the DUP and therefore enough ‘others’ are on board for the 3rd vote, but it’s a daily moving target. It is assumed that without a strong feeling of passing, the Govt might not put for 3rd vote this week, thus leaving us most likely with the risk of a longer delay with all its downside politically



News & Links

May's Brexit deal lives: Northern Irish kingmakers report 'good' talks with government https://reut.rs/2F2ZZFZ


Deutsche Bank starts merger talks with Commerzbank https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/17/business/deutsche-bank-commerzbank/index.html


Wells Fargo takes a pasting, from Congress and a regulator

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/03/16/wells-fargo-takes-a-pasting-from-congress-and-a-regulator


Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting to end US-China trade war may be pushed back to June, sources say. An April meeting has been described as less likely, but the two sides could be able to reach agreement by the middle of the year. One stumbling block appears to be the demand from some in the White House for an enforcement mechanism to ensure China lives up to its promises https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3001943/trump-xi-meeting-end-trade-war-may-be-put-back-june-sources


China Reveals the Fiscal Tricks Needed to Deliver Record Tax Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-15/china-reveals-the-fiscal-tricks-needed-to-deliver-record-tax-cut?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter


Australia, Kiwi dollars gain on China stimulus plans; pound firm https://reut.rs/2F3CZqx


You may not have heard of it (I hadn’t..), but this metal is an integral part of your life. Neodymium is in headphones, cellphones and electric cars — and China controls the world's supply. https://cnb.cx/2JrLRrU


Only our compromise can break the Brexit impasse. The people of this country deserve a final say on any deal in a confirmatory ballot https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/17/compromise-brexit-deal-phil-wilson-peter-kyle


China’s foreign minister makes nice in Brussels. Meeting with his EU counterparts, Wang Yi will discuss ways to promote multilateralism and prepare for next month’s China-EU summit. His visit comes in the wake of an EU report labeling China a “systemic rival.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3001747/chinese-foreign-minister-wang-yi-heads-brussels-wake-eu-report


China says 13,000 Xinjiang "terrorists" have been arrested since 2014 http://time.com/5553380/china-xinjiang-terrorists-arrested/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=time&utm_medium=socialflowtw&xid=time_socialflow_twitter


No sign of imminent North Korea missile launch: South Korea defense chief https://reut.rs/2FbBMxv


Ministers urged to class social media addiction as a disease to tackle 'health crisis' among young people https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstreatments/news/102585/ministers-urged-class-social-media-addiction

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