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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

Ardern / SPX500 stalls @4K / Weaker U.S macro data / USDJPY all the way back? / ECB hawkish still

  • U.S PPI : biggest drop since April 2020 and US retail sales continued to fall in December, dropping by 1.1% amid high inflation, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, US Industrial Production (M/M) Dec: -0.7% (est -0.1%)....all weaker...(this after a very weak Empire on Tuesday..) >>> USD, bonds, risk reacted as you would expected

  • Fed's Harker says he is ready to downshift to 25-basis-point rate hikes ''few more 25bp

  • Fed's Logan supports slower rate hike pace, possibly higher stopping point ''we can offset the effect by gradually raising rates to a higher level than previously thought''

  • Fed' Bullard ( non voter) ...but he did the damage yesterday for market sentiment, rates to get above 5% 'as quickly as we can''

  • Beige book : U.S. firms pessimistic about economic growth this year, Fed survey shows >>> market, people wants to be optimistic, BUT, the reality setting in, in terms of costs and lowering expenses for many, choice have to be made

  • The NY Fed's recession indicator (derived from the 3m10yr curve) is now showing a 47% change of a U.S recession. There have only been two other occasions in the past 62 yrs where it's been higher..HOWEVER..IMHO & for now anyway...high-yield credit spreads around 400 bps are wildly inconsistent with recession pricing.

  • #MSFT hosted Sting performance in #Davos the night before it announced layoffs. While much of comp’s leadership team was halfway around the world from its Redmond headquarters—it announced plans to lay off 10,000 people, largest layoffs since 2014

  • ‘No more in the tank’: New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern announces shock resignation,‘Politicians are human. We give all that we can, for as long as we can, and then it’s time. And for me, it’s time’

  • ECB’s Knot : ECB Planning To Hike By 50bps `Multiple' Times

  • Kissinger says..”that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an "appropriate outcome." "The idea of a neutral Ukraine under these conditions is no longer meaningful.”

  • "Game-Changer:" High-Powered laser steers lightning bolts for first Time (Switzerland)..


Markets :
  • US 3-month/10-year yield curve now inverted by 128 bps, the most since 1981. It was +225 bps as recently as May 2022 >>> Jerome Powell on to you sir ! Home / Twitter (chart)

  • USDJPY, BoJ was unch, BUT... nice round trip yesterday (still in downtrend, chartbelow, target 120 area).. helped by much weaker U.S. data in the afternoon. Lower yields, eventually dragged CROSSJPY's lower again, similar round trip!

  • SPX500 - well documented resistance levels at/above 4'000 area held, and weaker U.S macro data (reaction to all those 2022 hikes..) pushed risk lower overall, BULLS don't want market to go and close below 3850 area

  • Markets were full of optimism (from oversold levels at end of Dec) lots of short-covering early in the year, in the so-called lower quality stocks, which is/was far enough, together with the HUGE move lower in yields, reality setting in now

  • As a seasoned trader told me ''Old adage , the Fed hikes , the market cuts'', UST curve most inverted since 1981


Retail sales fell even further in December as shoppers battled inflation | CNN Business

Fed’s Beige Book shows signs inflation is slowing, but job market remains tight (

What happens if the US hits the debt ceiling? - BBC News

should not, and probably won't happen, however, some delays always possible, its politics after after all..short-term markets 'may' react

Alf on Twitter: "More companies mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US. Still a limited amount, but now approaching 2019 levels. These figures would be consistent with 100k Non-Farm Payrolls ahead. The labor market is weakening, and if it doesn't the Fed will push until it does." / Twitter

Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Latest Global Fund Manager survey from ⁦@BankofAmerica⁩ shows investors are most underweight U.S. equities since 2005 ... hasn't limited risk-on attitudes, though, given many have cited a move towards emerging market equities ⁦@Bloomberg⁩" / Twitter ...hence dips will probably be bought and/or there should not be much panic selling when we have negative days..

Jacinda Ardern quits as Prime Minister: Labour to elect new leader on Sunday, Grant Robertson won’t consider - NZ Herald

Henry Kissinger says Russia War Validates Ukraine's NATO Bid (

"Game-Changer:" High-Powered Laser Steers Lightning Bolts For First Time | ZeroHedge

🧙🏼‍♂️ on Twitter: "One of the wildest exchanges I've seen in a while was when the chairman of Thyssenkrupp crashed the interview and forced Karp to pitch him on Foundry. Karp later invited him to the $PLTR villa for a demonstration of the software." / Twitter

Labour calls for inquiry over Nadhim Zahawi tax affairs | Nadhim Zahawi | The Guardian

Crypto Meltdown Continues As Genesis Is Reportedly Filing For Bankruptcy This Week (

USDJPY - break of 127/128 calls for 120 or even 115 area - perhaps quicker than many think

SPX500 - same old chart - cluster of resistance 4K+ - now support 3850 short-term and 3750 area

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