Stéphan

Nov 8, 20233 min

UST's all about supply / WTI $80, refill time SPR, Copper / SPX500 / Biden & Xi to meet at APEC

  • Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties >>> China's Vice President Han Zheng sees “positive signals” after recent high-level talks with the US

  • IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts

  • The Fed doesn't want to talk about rate cuts, but Wall Street is sniffing out an increasing likelihood of just that. "“Six months ago, if the economy had fallen off the cliff, the Fed’s hands were tied. It couldn’t cut rates. Now it can."-BBG surveys on WallStreet

  • UST's : the supply story is much more important to rates than the various Fed comments, this can of course change, but in the near term, the hike cycle is over and the market is totally focused on UST auctions and corporate issuances

  • Self-driving car technology will still need another 10 years to become a big part of the business, says Uber CEO

  • Coca-Cola, Danone and Nestle have been accused of making misleading claims about their plastic water bottles being "100% recycled"

  • Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, an amount that has doubled in the past 19 months/BBG, Total US Credit Card debt hit a record $1.08 trillion in the 3rd quarter, rising 16.6% over the last year

  • Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will have "overall security responsibility" in Gaza for an "indefinite period" after its war with Hamas

  • India is proposing reducing import taxes on some electric vehicles from the UK in an effort to clinch a free-trade deal between the two nations by the end of the year

  • Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof

  • ECB can reduce borrowing costs once it’s sure that consumer-price gains are headed back to the 2% target, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks

  • FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?"


Markets :

  • U.S equity pushed slightly higher, all main 3 indices closed higher, with SPX, Nasdaq booking their longest winning run since Nov 2021 >>> momentum has slowed hard, few Fed talks today and Powell tomorrow, lower crude prices have helped the camp looking for yet lower inflation (demand low and China data weaker)

  • SPX500 : from oversold to overbought in 10days... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area - chart below (very similar picture in EU50stoxx chart yesterday)

  • Crude down a few pct again to below $80 (that's the 200dma around here), totally erased any ME premium, down about 20% in 4-5weeks! >>> should be a good time for Biden Team to refuel for the SPR in the U.S. and/or for investors to start thinking at the sector again

  • USD picks up steam pretty easily again, after short-term liquidation of longs last week (together with bonds, equity correction etc)


Technical analysis aex25 bel20 cac40 smi20 | Saxo Bank (home.saxo)

All technicals

ECB Can Cut Rates When Clear Inflation Beaten, Kazaks Tells TV3 (yahoo.com)

Wall Street Traders Are Suddenly Dreaming of the Fed Cuts They Crave - Bloomberg

Israel-Gaza latest: Hamas leader 'surrounded in bunker', Israeli minister claims - as Netanyahu says 'HQs, tunnels and bases destroyed' | World News | Sky News

IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts (yahoo.com)

Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the @FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?" In addition to capturing current and future challenges associated with the change in the liquidity regime, these charts highlight the need for growth. Growth is by far the best way to deal with higher… https://t.co/SHI40Bghnu" / X (twitter.com)

Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties (yahoo.com)

3 warning signs for Biden: Yahoo Finance-Ipsos poll

We wanted to go deeper in our survey and find out specifically why voters are so sour on the Biden economy. Inflation is clearly part of it, but inflation has improved substantially during the last year, while Biden’s approval rating has not. Something else seems to be weighing on voters. Here are three warning signs that emerged in our survey: inflation, recession, job market booming, but

Factbox-US Election Day results: Governor races, abortion rights and more (msn.com)

Millennials are struggling with credit card debt, NY Fed study finds (yahoo.com)

Coca-Cola and Nestle accused of misleading eco claims - BBC News

Uber earnings report Q3 2023 (cnbc.com)

Shares hit 1y highs

Germany agrees to consider UK-style plan on processing asylum abroad - BBC News

Benko-Gate: Bear loan breathtaking - Inside Paradeplatz

UBS: Integration Costs Prompt Quarterly Loss (finews.asia) they would or should 'kitchen sink it' in 2024, all redundancy and restructuring costs up-front..

Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof (yahoo.com)

Judge Chutkan Denies Donald Trump His Wish (newsweek.com)

SPX - from oversold to overbought in 10days... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area

Copper - been pretty rangy - China picking up steam (too many bears?..IMF ups forecasts on growth..) ... time to have a look again ?

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