UST curve un-inverting : recession signs ? / SPX 4200 lev / GOLD most oversold / NFP next up

Solar industry warns of hurdles to EU’s green tech drive: ‘Europe isn’t profitable’ Europe’s bid to expand its green tech industry faces a host of challenges, including high energy costs and supply chain issues, solar industry representatives gathered in Madrid warned on Thursday

IMF chief Georgieva: soft landing possible, but fiscal, debt risks abound

U.S yield curve 'un-inverting', textbook recession behaviour ? hence why the FED would appear to have 'leaked' a pause in Nov, due to 'financial conditions tightening'.. quite possible! employment data which remains key for Powell

JOLTS were much stronger, ADP a little softer in mid week, now time for NFP : payrolls expected to fall to 150K from 187K, U rate expected to hold at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, from 0.2% and 4.3% respectively

EV maker Rivian plans $1.5 bln convertible bond sale

Australia concludes China decoupling ‘impossible’ after carrying out series of classified studies

Developed nations pledge $9.3 billion to global climate fund at gathering in Germany

Alibaba accused of ‘possible espionage’ at European hub

The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US has moved up to 7.49%, the highest level since December 2000. U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an all-time high of $400 Billion. US small banks’ credit card delinquency rates hit a multi-decade high

GOLD most oversold since 2015/Thread

UST 10's just above 4.7% ahead of NFP, bonds oversold, but.. long-term yields could drop towards 4.4/4.5% and the long-term picture wouldn't change technically, and with supply coming it's hard to think of much more of a correction than this, Yellen going on a UST selling spree in a holiday shortened 3 day window next week.. total of nearly $550bn in gross issuance (bills and bonds) with $85bn of net issuance of which $61bn comes from 3s/10s/30s

USDollar similar, overbought slightly, as bonds and equity got a little oversold too, one NFP data is quite irrelevant, but decent swing possible in short-term sentiment

SPX500 200dma key for 'medium-term' direction into Q4, so far so good, we held this week! yet underneath it has been pretty terrible for rates sensitive stocks, take #BAC and #Citi stocks hitting 1y lows

Crude steadying $82 area after a huge liquidation of leveraged CTA/Spec positions, though long-term no real evidence of weak aggregate demand for crude, so soon a buy again.. bar a nasty recession call of course

#HYG also had its largest 10day sell.-off since banking crisis in March 2023, when 10's UST yields reached 4%