USD, duration-UST yields, Crude top out into Q-end / EU inflation 2y lows / UAW / U.S govt shutdown?

Iconic Sycamore Gap tree at Hadrian's Wall cut down by 'vandals'

All topped out short-term on the last fixings yesterday... rates-duration, USD, crude and Equity market found some buyers into 'those'..slightly oversold levels, pretty classic price action into quarter-end...moves 'faded' on last fixings...after such strong moves last few sessions... NOW, a mixture of risk with US core PCE ahead this afternoon (most important), UAW strikes and possible govt shutdown

The UAW wants to emerge from its strike against Ford, GM and Stellantis with at least a 30% pay raise. At that level (lower than initial 40% demand), the union believes will satisfy members and organize non-union plants. That includes a cost-of-living allowance and a wage increase

Fed's Goolsbee's remarks yesterday were relatively dovish. He cautioned against 'policy overshooting' while highlighting the way forward to achieve the Fed's mandate

Taiwan reveals first domestically made submarine in defense milestone

Swiss KOF Leading Indicator Sep: 95.9 much better than expected 90.5

Britain's economic performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been stronger than previously thought, with faster growth than Germany or France, according to revisions to official data released on Friday, good news!

Italy's 10y risk spread over Germany rose to over 2OObps, for the 1st time since March with Italy 10y yield on course to 5%, definitely one to watch for in Q4 (credit etc)

Dutch headline CPI fell 0.3% from a year ago >> read this carefully, negative dutch inflation, German inflation softened a little more than expected, Sep CPI 4.5% from 6.1% in Aug, The Bundesbank data confirms that German core inflation slowed markedly in Sep to around 2% MoM annualized, this was the lowest in 2 years and due to an outright fall in core goods prices, the first in 30 months, looks real, good signs. Eurozone inflation hits two-year low

U.S 30Y mortgage: 7.83% >> make it stop!

Nvidia Linked to Dawn Raid by French Competition Regulator, French agency announced the move on its website Wednesday

The bests of Charlie Munger - 5mins video (see below) priceless

The Fed’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” Chair Jerome Powell said, highlighting the importance of work done by economic educators

As mentioned yesterday, markets got a little too bearish (short-term positioning) and got to key support levels in NASDAQ 14500 area, SPX500 4230 (less than 1pct of 200dma) and the month-end flows are probably mostly out of the way by now...>>>> same price action on USD and duration/USTyields which seem to have done 'enough' for now near 4.5-4.6% in 10's, equities (big 7's in particular) don't mind steeper curves

SPX500 still on trend, just about, chart below, as long as 200dma holds nearer to 4210, markets will feel nothing has changed, same NASDAQ 1450 Aug lows levels

USdollar topped out into quarter-end fixes... : 0.9200CHF, 1.0500 EURO, 1.2150 GBP, 1.3500CAD and 0.6400 AUD. USDJPY nearer to 150JPY also has 'fears of intervention' to potentially put a top there - early days though!

Crude : similar price action >>> prices so key for Q4, inflation and all, crude above $100 on a sustained basis is not good for growth globally either

UST10's same price action hit a 4.66 or so yesterday, backing off about 10bps again overnight, always hope that 'we are getting there'' finally.. >>>> HOWEVER, estimate of US Treasury ballooning borrowing requirements for 2024FY to go even higher, this IS the big worry still going forward: supply (a known known but the supply is on the increase still)