Stéphan

Apr 103 min

#URA, #GDX, #UST3y auction weak, #HSI +20% since #contrarian Jan trade / #GOLD in vogue / U.S CPI and FOMC minutes up next today, ECB meeting tomorrow

  • U.S CPI up next, expected around 3.4%, markets don't need a new inflation lift-off, markets have about 60bps of FED Fund cuts priced in for 2024, earnings probably well received, Powell in mood of promising cuts in election year.. FOMC minutes later on + ECB tomorrow, where Christine will probably find a few excuses to be dovish too

  • #GOLD is so back in vogue!

  • UST Bond : 3y UST auction (weak) showed that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes

  • German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius threw his weight behind calls for reform of rules that restrict new borrowing by the federal government to help fund a radical overhaul of the nation’s armed forces, he aid the Bundeswehr’s financial needs can’t be met solely by reallocating money from elsewhere in the budget once a special fund worth €100 billion ($109 billion) is exhausted in 2027.... more spending

  • A group of older Swiss women have won the first ever climate case victory in the European Court of Human Rights. The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves linked to climate change

  • BoJ to consider raising inflation forecasts after results of recent wage negotiations

  • More than a dozen retired four-star generals, admirals and other former military leaders filed an amicus brief with in the Supreme Court on Monday, arguing against former President Trump’s claims of immunity in his criminal cases

  • New data on Moderna's cancer vaccine sends stock rising. The pharma company announced results of an early stage trail on Monday that suggests that its experimental treatment could be used for a variety of cancers

  • Small business optimism hit an 11-year low as inflation fears persist, #highforlonger hurts weakest balance-sheets (something the Mag10 say don't have to worry too much about)

  • Jan '24 contrarian trade update : Hang Seng China Index now up 20% from 2024 lows. Hang Seng China, HSI and MSCI China now at highest levels YTD, you are in a good position now!

  • Billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice is asking creditors to agree to losses as the company’s embattled French telecommunications arm pushes to slash a debt burden of almost €25 billion ($27 billion) >> MS raised their Brent target price to $94 (from 90)

  • EIA has global oil demand at 102.34mbpd, global oil supply at 102.10mbpd in March

  • Currently, we're sitting at a record19.8% vacant at the national level," Moody's head of commercial real estate economics

  • France : The Macron camp under high tension with a deficit still above 5% in 2024
     


Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Horrible 3y UST auct shows that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes -A 2bps tail, highest since Feb‘23, tells investors may be worried about sticky CPI -Btc 2.5 is well below‘23 avg of 2.7 -Indirects 60.3% below‘23 avg" / X (🇺🇸Horrible 3y UST auct shows that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes -A 2bps tail, highest since Feb‘23, tells investors may be worried about sticky CPI -Btc 2.5 is well below‘23 avg of 2.7 -Indirects 60.3% below‘23 avg" / X (twitter.com)

Le camp Macron sous haute tension avec un déficit encore supérieur à 5 % en 2024 | Les Echos

Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears persist (qz.com)

Yahoo Finance on X: ""Currently, we're sitting at 19.8% vacant at the national level," Moody's head of commercial real estate economics Thomas LaSalvia says on office vacancies. "This is a national high. The previous record was set in the late 80s, early 90s." https://t.co/DP4e7KNVBV" / X (twitter.com)

Hong Kong seizes over $10 million worth of gold disguised as machine parts in record smuggling bust (msn.com)

Gold is so back

Costco selling up to $200 million in gold bars a month, Wells Fargo estimates (cnbc.com)

China unveils measures to promote industrial equipment upgrades-Xinhua (news.cn)

The Uranium Bull Market Is Just Getting Started | InvestorPlace

Why Have Rate Hikes Not Done Anything? (theovershoot.co)

Higher consumer spending has been financed primarily by more people working (at better jobs), for longer hours, at higher pay.

German Defense Chief Pistorius Calls for Loosening of Debt Restrictions - Bloomberg

X's AI chatbot Grok made up a fake trending headline about Iran attacking Israel | Mashable

Madness, stop this guy...or else

Elon Musk's ‘self-inflicted wounds’ and more from a new deposition (qz.com)

Elon Musk promises ‘full data dump’ on Brazilian judge in X feud (qz.com)

Moderna cancer vaccine results send stock up (qz.com)

How Altice Can Push Its Creditors to Cut Billions of Debt: Q&A (yahoo.com)

Bond hair cut coming

Explainer: Why did Ecuador raid Mexico's Quito embassy? | Reuters

European court rules human rights violated by climate inaction (bbc.com)

Former top military officers push back on Trump immunity claim | The Hill

#GDX gold miners - have hardly moved long-term

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