Stéphan
Feb 94 min
Kung Hei Fat Choi to friends celebrating, happy new Wood Dragon year!
'My memory is fine': Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence. Special counsel report questions Biden's memory
Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses, Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell >> because CRE loans are about 30% of small bank assets vs 7% of large banks
China Evegrande bond : 99% wiped out for HF's >>> “Authorities are not likely to allow offshore claimants to secure valuable onshore assets while effectively insolvent developers struggle to meet politically tense onshore obligations,”... and they wonder why money not flowing back in China...au contraire, flows moving out via Tether and al
U.S has seen a decent amount of layoffs recently (ZH link-article), however...see Threads - how negativity plays in the media, layoffs maybe, but NFP, JOLTS, claims still strong (for now anyway, clearly must be monitored!)
The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its key rate by a higher than expected 50 bps to 6.25% on February 8, as policymakers reacted to macro-economic figures show that growth is still struggling to accelerate, while inflation is falling fast
EV : I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? good video explanation below
Puzzling : With a $3 trillion market cap, Microsoft is twice the size of the entire energy sector in the S&P 500, which generates double Microsoft’s annual free cash flow
US firms see best start to February ever in announced buybacks
Chinese stocks trading at their highest levels since very early Jan, rescue packaged, short selling bans, disabling the sell button on some uant funds appear to have stopped the pain, for now anyway #contrariantrade
Cocoa prices through the roof, Valentine's day 2024 officially cancelled !
Seven stocks (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) added $5.1 trillion to their market cap in 2023, accounting for about 55% of the $9.2 trillion added during the year by all 6658 US firms
-SPX500 up vs Copper down is another combination that isn't really common (long-term)
Markets : yields grinding higher 10's UST 4.17 (dragging USDJPY higher), Bund yields highest in 2months etc, big UST auction week passed by without troubles, but perhaps the supply will tell eventually >>> BIG Techs totally unbothered, large cap vs small cap (SPX all time highs vs RUT in bear market), growth, Ai vs cash flow, major 'gap' continues to widen to some 15y extremes depending on which ratio you are looking at >>> real question is when is growth overpriced, when is Ai overpriced ?..not too dissimilar to the .com period
Czech central bank cuts key rate by 50 bps (msn.com)
Nick Timiraos on X: "There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side banks and other Fed watchers around when the first rate cut occurs. All now see the first cut in either May or June and are nearly evenly divided on that question. There's a wide range on the question of how many cuts. https://t.co/AtlFIKHT8F" / X (twitter.com)
Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses (msn.com)
Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell (yahoo.com)
Special counsel report questions Biden's memory (axios.com)
'My memory is fine': Joe Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence (telegraph.co.uk)
Analysis: How do the EU farmer protests relate to climate change? - Carbon Brief
Despite Mass Layoffs, US Jobless Claims Declined Last Week | ZeroHedge
However : ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "People are getting excited about layoff announcements despite Claims, UR, NFP, JOLTS, and all the headline data showing labor market still pretty decent. Here's some perspective on how those headlines were a red herring in 2015, 2022 and 2023. Employment is hiring and firing.… https://t.co/IdfAKB94HR" / X (twitter.com)
ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "Of the many, many ways that negativity bias plays out in the media: You see big scary layoff headlines every day but you rarely see headlines about hiring. Layoff headlines are best ignored as they are useless anecdotes that should be compared to data tabulating offsetting… https://t.co/BT15MirS8W" / X (twitter.com)
Evergrande: A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China - Bloomberg
Arm becomes Britain's sixth most valuable company after shares rise 50% (msn.com)
ZKB almost explodes with profits – Inside Paradeplatz
Microsoft layoffs at Activision violate merger promises, FTC says (qz.com)
SoftBank shares extend their surge, pop more than 15% on earnings beat (cnbc.com)
PayPal shares fall as 2024 forecast clouds promise of turning leaner, more profitable (msn.com)
Musings on Markets: The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)
Share Repurchases Return With Stocks Hitting Record Highs - Bloomberg
I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? (youtube.com) >>>> the whole point about there being no measure of battery degradation hence second hand values have collapsed and so leasing costs go through the roof and sales stop in addition to the much higher insurance costs and outside of Tesla, no proper charging network
TLT : tech picture looks weak ''''The technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, often signifies a shift in momentum and investor sentiment''