Stéphan

Oct 15, 20232 min

Sunday night latest - Poland election / German FM on Brexit / Geopolitics in ME very uncertain

  • The whole situation in the Middle East is tragic and remans highly uncertain, whether or how far it escalates, and how other countries will react..US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to Israel Monday for "further consultations" after visiting Saudi Arabia. Eq markets set to reopen near/slightly below Friday's close, CHF still strong, and CROSSJPY's near same closing levels too

  • The right-wing populist Law and Justice party is on course to win most seats in Poland's general election, an exit poll suggests, but may struggle to secure a third term in office

  • Bonds weakened on U.S CPI, and Friday saw a Very decent bid in bonds again even with a weak 30y auction

  • In FX, CHF, gold reacted to bonds/geopolitics, as you would expect, even JPY showed a few signs of strengthening / short-covering, JPY crosses have been 'topping out' for weeks, looking for a trigger to move down, maybe we have it now..

  • SPX500 hit the 200dma around 4200 10days ago, rallied to the 100dma just short of 4400 and sold off again (Buyback authorizations are high but down 18% year/year-GS), equity market is very short VOL via ETF's.. #VIX etc...

  • WTI crude back to $88 from $82 lows last week, still very short of the $95 in late Sep, definitely a MUST keep an eye on in terms of who gets involved in this precarious geopolitical situation

Israel-Hamas war live: Gaza witnessing ‘unprecedented human catastrophe’ amid water shortage (msn.com)

US sending second carrier strike group, fighter jets to region as Israel prepares to expand Gaza operations (msn.com)

Hamas Attack on Israel: For Oil, It’s Not 1973, But It Could Still Turn Ugly - Bloomberg

Poland's ruling party leads in election - exit poll - BBC News

Azerbaijan and Armenia: a conflict resolved? – Palatinate

BlackRock clients pull $13 billion from long term investment funds (business-standard.com)

Bankruptcies are surging - and Fed rate hikes are to blame, economist says (msn.com)

Hardly surprising!

Brexit: 'Call us' on trade, says German finance minister Christian Lindner - BBC News

well well well

Paulo Macro on X: "Thread on UST funding and RRP. Backdrop: US treasury debt outstanding has gone from $22.7T to $33.2T over the past four years (9/30/19 to 9/30/23), and 30.9T a year ago. So +$2.3T 1y and +$10T 4y. The -12m deficit is $1.7T per below, as of 9/30 (Treasury is on a Sept FY) 1/18 https://t.co/RRzl9qZNnB" / X (twitter.com)

Have a great start to the week

Team PVM

GOLD

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