Stéphan
Oct 8, 20233 min
Shocking news over the weekend - BBG-For the oil market, it's not October 1973 again -- but oil prices are still likely to rise (they just went down 10%..) particularly if Israel concludes that Hamas acted on instructions of Tehran and attacks Iran, if confirmed it could snowball into a bigger conflict in the ME which will keep oil prices buoyant for a while. Some claims, it is one of the biggest intelligence failure in Israel history.... U.S Equity markets off about 0.5% on the 'weekend futures', local markets in Israel down sharply though, note USDILS been bid (like all usd) for a while mind ..
Amazon is hiring 250,000 employees for the holidays, and making its largest ever annual investment in U.S. hourly wages
Levi Strauss cut its full-year sales forecast, citing weak sales of its denim at department stores and big-box retailers, folks struggling to even buy jeans?
U.S Credit card debt exploded by $14.68 billion last month >> end of cycles, when savings are drained and folks take out new credit cards..
The autumn bond rout is challenging Wall Street’s longstanding belief that the U.S. government can’t sell too many Treasurys... huge supply this week!
The People's Bank of China released its September gold reserve data today. In September, PBOC purchased 840,000 oz of gold, increasing its holdings for the 11th consecutive month, with a current gold reserve of 70.46 million oz
The U.S. Dollar was used for 46% of all international payment transactions in July, a RECORD high. But we were told...BRICS?
Markets >>> U.S payrolls still very strong (U.S claims the tell..and JOLTS), average earnings up slightly, which markets loved on Friday, next up U.S. CPI and geopolitics in Middle East, depending on how's involved, Crude could rally strongly over few months, just as it came off 10pct last week.. and given SPR empty, that's strategically not particularly clever! TLT closed at its lowest price in more than 16years last week, approaching the lowest price since inception in 2002. The longest duration bond ETF ($ZROZ) is down over 60% from its peak in 2020 and now has a negative return over the last 10 years
A few bullets on Friday's sell low, chase high agony:
1. CTA positioning: Currently SHORT -$40B on SPX, the most significant short in the model's history.
2. HFs have increased their short positions. US notional short exposure is around the 80th percentile since early 2018.
3. Rate volatility decreased...chart shows MOVE inv vs SPX.
4. Employment report was not as strong as headlines suggested. Wage growth was softer, and unemployment remained consistent in the household report. (GS)
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran say Israel has only itself to blame for Hamas attacks | The Hill
Biden, Macron others voice support for Israel after Hamas attack (cnbc.com)
All had to refresh our memories 1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia no idea whether this is similar or not, everyone will have a view..
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds - WSJ
Amazon is hiring 250,000 seasonal employees for the holidays in the U.S. (aboutamazon.com)
Levi Strauss cuts full-year sales forecast again, as inflation takes a toll (msn.com)