Stéphan

Nov 2, 20232 min

Powell, high maybe not so long / Refunding 'dovish' / VIX down, risk rally / APPL next up

  • AAPL : The largest company in the world reports later on today

  • U.S Treasury refunding (more issuance in short-end, less long-end, rebuild the TGA using RRP now..and get ready for an election year..probably keeping liquidities aplenty) ..came in slightly below 'feared levels', long-end rallied ahead of FOMC which was painted as perhaps 'high for not quite as long as feared', although the text didn't change much at all

  • ECB's Knot: Policy rates now are at a good 'cruising altitude' >>> given data, ECB is pretty much done IMHO, German data showing rise in claims, unemployment rising

  • Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation, Japan PM Kishida says will push firms to achieve higher wage hikes next year and eventually drop YCC in Jan or Feb ?

  • Toyota has stated that from January 1, most hourly manufacturing workers (in the U.S) will experience a wage increase of approximately 9%,

  • Signa Development Selection AG bonds lost about half their value on concern the company, part of Austrian billionaire Rene Benko’s sprawling real estate empire, is running low on cash

  • SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments

  • Trump trial document may prove he knew he lost election: Legal analyst

  • FT-Media today stops politicians facing both ways on divisive issues


Markets :
  • Post Powell fear puke : VIX is not SPX500, but the last time VIX was here, SPX500 was 4'350 and long-end rallies on less Treasury issuance announcement

  • UST 10's dropped relatively sharply (in an oversold market..) to now 4.74%

  • EUROstoxx50 back near top of down channel, a bounce in a bear market must make lower lows to confirm bearish view, SPX500 back above 200dma ahead of AAPLE, Nasdaq100 back above those previous lows 14'500/700 area

  • UST's whole curve beyond 1y back below 5% - markets were oversold in short-term, nice reaction on Powell who may or may not, probably won't hike


TREASURIES-US yields slip after Treasury boosts auction sizes | Reuters

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The Fed holds steady in an unprecedented economy (qz.com)

U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh Fed policy outlook (cnbc.com)

Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation | Reuters

Germany's Jobless Rate Ticked Up in October - MarketWatch

Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com)

Toyota Announces Wage Increase For US Factory Workers After UAW Secures Pay Hikes With Detroit Three (msn.com)

DoubleLine’s Gundlach says interest rates are going to fall as recession arrives early 2024 (msn.com)

Benko’s Signa Development Bonds Plunge as Cash Dries Up (yahoo.com)

Benko's "Amigos" tremble: No way to get out of here - Inside Paradeplatz

Nvidia: Competitors Will Be Watching Q3 Earnings (NASDAQ:NVDA) | Seeking Alpha

SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments (yahoo.com)

Trump Trial Document May Prove He Knew He Lost Election: Legal Analyst (newsweek.com)

AI Experts Find Rishi Sunak And Elon Musk Interview "Depressing" (politicshome.com)

After Greece clambers back to investment grade, what lies ahead? | MacroPolis

China data stabilizes as policy measures accelerate (robeco.com)

Too many bears?

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