Stéphan
Jan 194 min
Keep warm!
U.S inflation at say 3% isn't a problem at all ! what is the problem, is the market expectations that we are heading to 2% fast together with the 5 or 6 cuts priced in for 2024 >>> The late 2023 persistent bid for duration is obviously no more as we start pricing higher inflation and term risk
Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd month, taking pressure of BoJ to hurry into changing policy >>> JPY reaction overnight, 149 USDJPY highs
U.S Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022
UK/EU Banks brace for new multibillion £ mis-selling saga: This time it's car loans
UK chancellor, Jeremy Hunt has given strong hints that he wants to cut taxes in the spring budget
The United States is drowning OPEC in oil. Shale country keeps putting pressure on the Saudi-led cartel
TSMC sees more delays at its Arizona chips plant — and again blames a shortage of skilled workers
Benjamin Netanyahu rejects calls from US for Palestinian state after Gaza conflict
Assets in money market funds and CDs hit $8.8 Trillion
China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in Dec 2023, how!? >>> and China banning bad news and short selling, rather than address issues.. >>> State-owned Citic Securities Co. has stopped lending stocks to individual investors and raised the requirements for institutional clients earlier this week after so-called window guidance from regulators
Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years. Top official urges civilians as well as governments to prepare for life-changing conflict and potential conscription (pushing defense spending to new highs for longer!)
"AI has to be, almost, a human right, to have access to AI, and we need to have the governance around AI," says Salesforce CEO
EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire (chart below, though I'm sure you can do a better one :-) - just to be things in perspective
Markets :
Mag 7's, NVDA, AMD flavour of the month, year so far! pushing NASDAQ through new highs, AAPL got an upgrade from BofA, MSFT new highs etc
SPX500 4'800 test again, looking at NASDAQ for clues?..
FXland : a bout of CHF weakness, which should continue... on the back of SNB/Jordan and seasonal (lack of hedging flows), JPY been weak on slightly softer JPN inflation and higher UST rates path (pushing back on early cut(s)
UST10's 4.14, bond bulls keeping an eye on 4.2% as a key resistance (in yield terms), and eventual risk of any other equity outside the Mag 7's! and USDollar
30-Year Treasury Yield jumps to 4.37%, its highest level since early December
Crude steady/slightly higher >> ME tensions vs US flooding markets
Nick Timiraos on X: "Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, core PCE is projected to have been mild last month. The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov. This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively https://t.co/X8Yp5sMfUP" / X (twitter.com)
Carl Quintanilla on X: "B of A: “.. Following a year of investors bracing for a recession .. every type of US investor holds more cash and less equities. .. We see some inklings of warming sentiment toward equities .. but are far from levels of euphoria that would mark the end of a bull market.”… https://t.co/49ABNZy7WT" / X (twitter.com)
Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022, while CEO exits hit new high (msn.com)
Red Sea shipping attacks add to inflation risks - Oxford Economics
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Quite a lot of super interesting folks talking, thankfully no 'message', just a nice stream of very high profile speakers
We don't want to see an AI 'Hiroshima,' Salesforce CEO warns (msn.com)
Can WEF break the impasse on global governance of AI? - SWI swissinfo.ch
China’s Biggest Brokerage Restricts Short Sales After Stock Rout (yahoo.com)
Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd month, takes pressure off BOJ | Reuters
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hints at further tax cuts (msn.com)
The most infamous bond trade | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
US Congress passes bill to avert government shutdown, sends it to Biden | Reuters
North Korea tested underwater nuclear weapons system: KCNA - Nikkei Asia
Robin Brooks on X: "China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in December 2023. This isn't rocket science. It's not like Kazakhstan has gone into a massive boom. These goods are obviously getting trans-shipped to Russia and help keep Putin's war economy going... https://t.co/JUDyOeIGA2" / X (twitter.com)
Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years (telegraph.co.uk)
The United States is drowning OPEC in oil (qz.com)
TSMC sees delays at Arizona chips plant, blames skilled worker shortage (qz.com)
Electric cars at risk of breaking down as cold weather impairs batteries | ITV News
nothing new, but EV drivers don't want the cold snap to last, how ironic
Banks Brace for New Multibillion-Pound Misselling Saga: This Time It's Car Loans | Financial Post The Financial Conduct Authority has reached out to around a dozen banks about their auto lending practices, according to people familiar with the matter. The moves come as the regulator said last week it had begun an investigation into how some of these products were sold — a push that analysts say could land banks with a bill of as much as £10 billion ($13 billion). For decades, lenders including Barclays Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and the UK arm of Spain’s Banco Santander SA have made big money from funding car purchases. Now, the FCA is looking at whether customers were told about the amounts of commission paid to the dealerships
EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire