JOLTS weaker, NFP Friday! / RBNZ +50bps / #XAUUSD vs miners / S&P20 vs 480 / Fed's Mester

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JOLTS sees a big decline. 9.931M vs expectations of 10.5M >>> 2yUST yields quickly dropped about 10bps to current 3.87%, USDollar followed, GOLD setting itself up for new highs, equity markets rallied initially, but 'fatigued' into the close, earnings report and Easter weekend looming (NFP Friday - remember most markets closed though)

“The rally in the S&P500 since the beginning of the year has been driven by 20 stocks, the market cap of the remaining 480 stocks has basically not gone up.”

Credit Suisse chair Axel Lehmann apologises to angry shareholders at fractious final AGM >>> is it that simple ?. Credit Suisse collapse may put Singapore in the spotlight >>> anecdotally, already has.. >>> today we get the UBS AGM, the story is not over, Finma wants powers to impose fines - higher capital requirements will apply to new UBS

White House : (it had to come out...).. given market uncertainty, we do not believe that OPEC production cuts are prudent, we made it clear to OPEC.. (that's because the U.S took too long to refill the SPR..hardly even started by all accounts)

RBNZ hikes rates by surprise 50 bps, says inflation still too high

What are the criminal charges against Donald Trump?. The former president pleaded not guilty to a litany of alleged crimes in Manhattan district court

India rejects China’s attempt to rename places in disputed areas. China renames 11 places in the disputed border region as it claims sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh

Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT. It’s the first western country to take action against an AI chatbot, and the ban comes as the country is also mulling limits on the use of English language

GOLD prices closing in all time high sin USD terms, senior and junior minors still 20-30% below highs of 2022 >>> the equity part of the market will soon 'have' to start to believe in the move

Last few days, undaunted by Market Meltup, Wilson and Kolanovic double down on doom, see stocks retesting 2022 lows >>> many been calling equites down all the way up, we would keep 4100/4200 as a pretty hard level to break ahead of/post earnings reports on valuation ground

JPMorgan's Dimon says US banking turmoil not over, sees long repercussions, The world’s most powerful banker wants Congress to think long and hard before taking any ill-advised actions against a financial industry reeling from two of the worst failures in U.S. history

Emmanuel Macron to urge China’s Xi Jinping to drop support for Russia over Ukraine war

BBG - The German arms industry is a prime beneficiary of global rearmament. Germany ranked sixth in arms exports in 2022, trailing the US, France, Russia, China, and Italy

To keep inflation on a sustained downward path to 2% and keep inflation expectations anchored, FED's Mester said she sees monetary policy moving "somewhat further into restrictive territory this year, with the fed funds rate moving above 5% and the real fed funds rate staying in positive territory for some time.”

Crude steady after OPEC+ up move, supply will tighten in months ahead though

Inflation is still an issue, clearly. Off the highs, but still too high, this will have implication still to indebted business models in months and years ahead

Shaky banking models, only means higher and more expensive credit conditions , cost of capital etc in particularly to weaker credit and higher fees for all !

SPX500 advance should pause if not stall into 4100/4200, ahead of earnings reports, valuation getting stretched, although lower USD and yields giving 'breathing space' to markets

USDollar stays weak(er), clearly macro data and rates matter, FX market price action is quick to sell $ on weaker data. CHF, JPY, Gold in tandem

GOLD making it's move slowly but surely, perfect storm really, also Gold/Copper ratio clear signal usually of slowdown ahead and/or mild recession, #NEM - Newmount Corp vs #XAUUSD price >>> equity side of things clearly been lagging - chart below