Stéphan

Aug 30, 20233 min

JOLTS much lower / Spanish & German inflation higher again / ADP, PCE and NFP up next

  • Spanish core CPI rises to 6.1% YoY (est was 6.0%), Germany's Brandenburg Aug CPI 7.1% YoY vs 6.3%

  • JOLTs Job Openings decreased from 9.582 million in June to 8.827 million in July and the Conf Board Consumer Confidence declined from 117 in July to 106.1 in August (>>2y UST yields dropped about 10-15bps to current 4.92%) >> The JOLTS report missed analyst estimates by a wide margin, highlighting the negative impact of rising interest rates -biggest 3-month drop in US job openings on record, Powell talked about employment 15x last Friday.. next up ADP, PCE and NFP

  • US wants to work with China to address concerns such as climate change, AI, fentanyl crisis, said US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo when meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang

  • Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, its board member Naoki Tamura said on Wed, signalling the chance of an end to negative interest rates early 2024

  • Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation: ‘We’re not gonna back down’

  • Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens

  • Russia targets Kyiv with the biggest overnight missile attack since the spring

  • Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension'

  • First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC

  • Germany : In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster/Welt

  • FDIC plans to boost oversight on US midsized lenders : The FDIC plans to boost oversight of US midsized lenders and require them to better prepare for potential failures. Banks with as little as $100 billion in assets will have to issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses in times of severe stress. However, only the largest and most-complex firms will be subject to total loss-absorbing capacity requirements, or TLAC


Markets :
  • Bad news (JOLTS and consumer confidence) was good news for markets y'day, NQ in particular, oversold levels in markets gone in short-term ! just like this

  • USD dipped initially and should continue softer, IF next sets of data show similar signs of slowdown... CROSSJPY's closing in on higher levels again into month-end, metals rallied further, Silver charts all out again with that potential big break up

  • Bonds moved a bit but honestly the deciders coming up now with ADP, PCE and NFP >>> UST supply will remain huge over next couple of months!


Sticky Spanish and German inflation lift investor bets on ECB rate rise | Financial Times

Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com)

Raimondo meets Chinese officials as countries seek more stable relationship (cnbc.com)

Technical analysis UBS indicators sending signs of trend exhaustion | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

David Rosenberg on X: "To see a JOLTS report show declines in openings, hires and quits and an increase in layoffs is a 4 SD event. It has happened the grand total of 4% of the time in the past and just 2% when the economy was not in a recessionary state (maybe it is!)." / X (twitter.com) it's 1 data, let's see if it's backed up by ADP, PCE and NFP ..

17 Billionen Euro Schulden: In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster - WELT

BOJ policymaker signals chance of policy tweak early next year | Reuters

Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens | Reuters

Meta disrupts Chinese misinformation network linked to law enforcement (cnbc.com)

Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension' - BBC News

First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC (cnbc.com)

No-Mercy-UBS: Ü50 landen im Uetlihof auf Strasse - Inside Paradeplatz was ever so..

German economic policy has gone stark raving mad (telegraph.co.uk)

German economic policy is a clutter of contradictions and misguided shibboleths. The coalition government is offering exorbitant subsidies to profitable American and Asian semiconductor companies at a cost of €3.3m (£2.8m) per job, radically departing from Germany’s ordoliberal traditions of market primacy.

Russia's War in Ukraine: Kyiv Hit in Biggest Strike in Months - Bloomberg

Russia’s kamikaze drones raining down on Ukraine's east - BBC News

Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation: ‘We’re not gonna back down’ | The Hill --- more details here Jon Cooper on X: "🚨BREAKING: The federal government just identified the first 10 medications that will be subject to direct price negotiations with pharmaceutical manufacturers, as part of a major new initiative to reduce prescription drug costs in Medicare. The list includes a pair of… https://t.co/GQHyd8m09l" / X (twitter.com)

County in China offers cash 'reward' for newlywed couples if bride is aged 25 and under | World News | Sky News a bit desperate!

have a great day

Team PVM

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