Stéphan
Apr 233 min
Mega cap earnings coming up #TSLA, $AMZN $META $GOOGL $MSFT and $AAPL and JPN keep talking about JPY interventions, they need to walk the walk
UST 10y yields have been above SPX500 earnings yields for 3weeks, 1st time since 2002 (that's when Equity started to come under pressure-no coincidence, grwoth vs value etc) >>> This week, Janet is now selling $70bn of 2's, $70 of 5's tomorrow and $44bn of 7's on Thur - as always well flagged but price action in long-end will be interesting clearly given size
EU zone service sector activity is on the rise again (June cut?), be interesting if eventually GDP follows (it should, but we won't know for few months)
German Composite PMI Index moved back to >50 growth threshold in Apr for 1st time in 10mths, driven by a buoyant services sector
U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort. Washington says Beijing’s dual-use trade has helped Moscow rebuild its war machine
FTSE100 new all time high....still silly cheap
UBS: “.. Investors attribute the run in mega cap stocks to animal spirits and the impact of AI; however, our work indicates that surging earnings momentum .. fueled this upside. Unfortunately, this momentum is collapsing, with Big 6 EPS growth expected to decline from 42% to 16% over the next year ..” [Golub]
BofA: Repeat of 1973 or just headline risk? The second inflation wave in the 1970s was fueled by the Yom Kippur War and oil shock
Money’s been flowing into HK markets from China. Mainland investors have been net buyers of HK equities nearly everyday since early February, #Jancontrarianchinalong
BofA credit investor April survey: "Investor camps are now: 45% soft landing, 40% no landing and 7% hard landing (7% unsure)...Inflation remains the #1 investor worry, and rising....Central bank policy error is the #2 concern."
UK (video below) Farm update plus why the National Food Strategy isn't working & higher food prices are on the way
Global EV Outlook 2024 - Moving towards increased affordability
Strong S&P 500 Earnings Expectations - Apollo Academy
Japan and South Korea could coordinate currency intervention, but they may need U.S. support (msn.com) you've got to talk the walk if you mean it...raise rates and get on with it
US to take aim at Chinese banks aiding Russia war effort, WSJ reports (msn.com)
Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 China’s total social financing (the best official measure of debt) rose in the first quarter by 8.8% year on year, to RMB 390.3 trillion. This is the lowest rate of increase in over 20 years, which may at first seem like a good thing from... https://t.co/emrTOVzkBg" / X (twitter.com)
Chris Giles on X: "Remarkable ebook published within 10 days of the Bernanke review with contributions from 28 macro economists by @kingsbschool Clearly no productivity crisis in UK economics..... ... not that much love for the review either... https://t.co/X8g9ACML95 https://t.co/qr9F1ot7ht" / X (twitter.com)
Switzerland braced for wave of bank staff layoffs - SWI swissinfo.ch
Swiss luxury chalet market runs out of steam - SWI swissinfo.ch
Migros Zurich with even more loss – bottomless pit – Inside Paradeplatz
Rwanda Bill – latest: Rishi Sunak’s asylum plan becomes law after late night row between government and Lords (msn.com) 2years later...
Shenzhou XVIII crewed spaceship ready for launch - Chinadaily.com.cn
Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA
Norway's biggest bank sells Tesla, Apple and Microsoft stock (qz.com)
Tesla Announces Plan to Lay Off Over 10% of Workforce (msn.com)
Russia sentences Meta executive Andy Stone to 6 years in prison (qz.com)
Farm update plus why the National Food Strategy isn't working & higher food prices are on the way (youtube.com) >>> listen to what he says about wheat prices and food inflation
#EURJPY for europeans (and others) its the one chance in a life time to go on holiday to JAPAN