Stéphan

Jan 9, 20233 min

ISM contracting / USDCNH <6.80.. / China to push growth / U.S CPI Thursday next key data

-Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up...Central bankers have been celebrated as alchemists who saved the world from the abyss. Now that inflation is out of control and losses are looming, they look far less omnipotent >>> they don't have any accountability, they can fail huge, and yet they'll invent a story that this and that happened, and that's why things are screwed..It was them who pushed QE...deal with it now !

-Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray

-China will make its prudent monetary policy more targeted and effective in order to facilitate the overall recovery and improvement of its economy, a senior official said

-In 2022, the TLT-30y bond posted ''the most oversold monthly'' RSI reading in it's history

-Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported, Guangzhou's 2023 GDP target growth rate is expected to exceed 6% - Caixin >>> USDCNH already sub 6.80 !...

-UK : Conservative voters now think the cost of Brexit outweighs its benefits for the first time, a new poll has found, finally admitting the obvious!

-Ant-linked firms' shares rise after news of Jack Ma ceding control; Alibaba jumps

-ECB Sees 'Very Strong' Wage Growth Ahead In Next Few Quarters

-Sweden's NATO Bid Derailed: 'Turkey Wants What We Can't Give Them'

-First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing


Markets :

-Bonds, USD, equity (duration) reacted to weaker ISM, 2y yields dropped about 20bps

-GOLD will continue to do well in this environment, XAG, XPT etc too

- USD, leveraged money has gone decently short USD on perception FED will slow, and eventually cut - BBG article and chart below

-Equity, FTSE100 (has done nothing for 10years..) breaking up (mining, foreign earnings and cheap GBP..), EZ markets outperforming U.S markets into late 2022 and as we kicked-off the new year

-Crude stay near lows-cheap


Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 9, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing (msn.com)

Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council

GOLD to shine jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#centralbanks have been buying #gold at an unprecedented pace. Is the freeze of #Russia's central bank assets to blame? Potentially big implications for global financial markets. #economy https://t.co/KW3ruv7h1y" / Twitter

we will continue to point out these kind of data/research, Gold, Silver, XPT etc all should do pretty well over next couple of years, as rates peak, Fed does too much eventually etc.

Optimism Makes Comeback on Wall Street With Soft Landing Eyed - Bloomberg

Tory voters losing faith in Brexit benefits, poll finds (telegraph.co.uk)

finally saying the obvious, it was a lie, and it was terrible executed!

China to make monetary policy more targeted, effective: senior official - People's Daily Online

Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported. http://epaper.zqrb.cn/html/2023-01/09/content_908663.htm?div=-1

Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up – POLITICO

Hedge Funds Ramp Up Dollar Shorts, Betting on Slower Fed Interest Rate Hikes - Bloomberg

Why WFH culture has made the impact of strikes even greater | News | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk) >>> One Lombard Street is the City of London’s canteen: an old-fashioned brasserie where deals are sealed over early-morning plates of smoked salmon and scrambled eggs. It usually has up to 150 covers at breakfast time. But last Tuesday, Soren Ulrik Jessen, the owner, surveyed an unfamiliar scene: “For the first time in 25 years, we had zero customers.'' whaooo

Why Does Private Equity Get to Play Make-Believe With Prices? | Institutional Investor

Brazil authorities seek to punish pro-Bolsonaro rioters - The Himalayan Times - Nepal's No.1 English Daily Newspaper | Nepal News, Latest Politics, Business, World, Sports, Entertainment, Travel, Life Style News

CNBC International on Twitter: "Brazil's business elite was one of former president Jair Bolsonaro's most ardent supporters, but the big economic turnaround they hoped for never happened. Here's what happened. https://t.co/kXLWYfKkcQ" / Twitter

GOP rep: What ‘backroom deals were cut’ to secure Speakership for McCarthy? | The Hill

SPX500 same tech levels, MUCH more, in fact ALL about sectors rotations, bonds/duration and stock picking

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