Stéphan

Feb 223 min

Further policy reversals : China / JPN eco revision softer, JPY ⬇️ & NIKKEI #AUDJPY⬆️ / #SHCOMP #HANG-SENG turning ⬆️ #NVDA smashed it

  • Fed Minutes : high for longer kind of message AND minutes suggest QT is going to continue longer than expected, ie possibly well into 2025.... NVDA 'smashed it', rebounds sharply after hours (10pct or so down previous couple of days, and right back up after earnings as per implieds), weak JPN data weakens JPY further pushing Nikkei higher to new highs again. Nestle softer sales, MSFT to turn to Intel, Rivian weaker outlook

  • Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ former NY Fed's Bill Dudley says

  • Fed’s Barkin says Inflation data show persistent price pressures

  • Fed's Bowman: The time for lower rates is certainly not now

  • Long-end UST's : ''If not for our experience of the aftermath of the financial crisis, I don't think too many would think current long-term rates are a GREAT buy here. Breakevens are still too low and real rates are clearly not hurting the economy. For now, going long should just be a trade''

  • The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate. The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet/Thread

  • JPMorgan’s Kolanovic doubles down on bearish stance, says a ‘second inflation wave’ could take hold

  • China tightens grip on stocks with net sale ban at Open/Close. CSRC bans net selling by major firms in first, last 30 minutes. Regulator is creating a task force to track short selling and another reversal of policy, 2year ago they arrested Jack Ma and now : 'China accelerates drafting of law on private economy promotion'...

  • Japan downgrades view on economy on consumer struggles >> sign that JPY can continue to stay soft/weaken further on higher UST yields

  • Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners

  • Microsoft is turning to Intel — not Nvidia — to make more chips

  • French Manufacturing Confidence Feb: 100 (est 99; prev 99)

  • Markets : weaker JPY theme continues, NVDA lifts everything back, NIKKEI new highs, even SHCOMP and Hang Seng showing promising signs technically, and if you think China and global growth can recover (no landing, yet anyway), then this should be of interest
     


Fed balance-sheet talks to guide 'eventual decision' on runoff. Most officials noted risks of cutting too quickly, some officials saw risk inflation progress could stall - full text https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240131.htm holding high for longer kind of a message/risk

Vitor Constâncio on X: "The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate. The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet. 1/11" / X (twitter.com)

In February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded and is back to its average - Informations rapides - 40 | Insee

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 February 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

‘Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ Bill Dudley says - MarketWatch

Fed’s Thomas Barkin Says Inflation Data Show Persistent Price Pressures - Bloomberg

Nvidia earnings send stock higher as AI chip demand continues (qz.com) - Data centers worldwide by country 2023 | Statista >>> BofAML raised targets to ..$925

Nestlé axes classic Breakaway bar after 54 years (msn.com)

Stellantis to start electric van production at UK Luton plant in 2025 | Reuters

Microsoft turns to Intel, not Nvidia, to make new chip (qz.com)

Japan Downgrades Economic View For First Time in Three Months (yahoo.com)

7 Trump losses in a row, and counting (yahoo.com)

Biden to forgive $1.2 billion in student debt for 150,000 borrowers (cnbc.com)

Ford dodges UAW strike at at Kentucky plant (qz.com)

China Tightens Grip on Stocks With Net Sale Ban at Open, Close - Bloomberg

Brrrrrrr -52C on Sunday ! Gallery: Blizzard Engulfs Northwest China - Caixin Global

Budget Speech 2024: South Africa boosts taxes and social spending before vote (thesouthafrican.com)

Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners - BBC News

Post Office chairman was told to delay compensation in election run-up, memo suggests | Post Office Horizon scandal | The Guardian

What a messy affair ! just the or certainly one of the biggest cover up by politicians, meanwhile poor folks who had done nothing wrong continue to suffer, not just financially! complete utter disagrace

Postfinance and Crypto Bank Sygnum Want to Attract an Audience of Millions (finews.asia)

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