Stéphan

Sep 21, 20233 min

FOMC : hawkish pause, high(er) for longer.. / UST 2s 5.16% / NASDAQ breaking down / USD up

  • In 1791, Thomas Jefferson said: "To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. If we run into such debts, we (will then) be taxed in our meat and our drink, in our necessities and in our comforts, in our labor and in our amusements''...sounds familiar ?

  • Powell: We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. The FOMC is not decided whether it’s reached a peak or not, Powell says. Markets are pricing in 50% of another rate hike this year >>> high(er) for longer, hawkish pause, how long higher etc AND the key IS employment from here on, not so much inflation (which is sticky, known known), for now the message is: one more hike this year and less easing in 2024

  • German carmakers in the line of fire of possible EU-China trade war/FT

  • NATO fractures : In U-Turn, Poland announces it will no longer arm Ukraine

  • The Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates 3 more times warns Vanguard

  • Sweden’s central bank hiked interest rates for the eighth consecutive time on Thursday, taking the main rate to 4%, as the country continues to battle high inflation

  • Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% on Thursday to curb inflation, as widely predicted, and, in a surprise move, said it would likely hike again in December

  • SNB has entered "wait and see mode" it said on Thursday after a surprise decision to pause its current cycle of interest rate hikes (low inflation and strong CHF..)


Markets :
  • Equity markets breaking down technically, leaders like NVDA below 50dma etc, beware going into quarter-end, rates, usd, all about momentum, on the other side #URA doing just fine in this environment..

  • UST 10's 4.43% - high(er) for longer, much longer? even 10's JGB's at a huge 74bps... (its huge when it was 10 not long ago), highest since 2013, long way to go in the duration game, fiscal irresponsibility etc etc

  • USD stays firm(er), EMGFX could come under pressure, or a lot of pressure if yields continue to move higher..and force USD higher, watch out the likes of USDCNH 7.35 area for sentiment.. (one has to like MXN, but it's probably still a pretty crowded trade out there)


Euro zone bond yields rise to multiple-month high after Fed rate decision (yahoo.com)

Goldman Sachs pushes its forecast for Fed rate cut to Q4 2024 | Reuters

Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell on the neutral rate: "We know it by its works." "It’s certainly plausible that the neutral rate" has shifted higher in the short term, "and that’s part of the explanation for why the economy has been more resilient than expected." https://t.co/tEYykCyg0m" / X (twitter.com)

Sweden's central bank raises rates to 4%, in line with expectations (cnbc.com)

Swiss National Bank in wait and see mode after pausing rate hikes (yahoo.com)

Oil Prices Could Hit $120 Per Barrel on Further Supply Cuts: JPMorgan (businessinsider.com)

UK's new online safety law adds to crackdown on Big Tech companies (qz.com)

Charles Norton on X: ".@EricBalchunas reporting on the #uranium ETFs this morning on BBG. Seems potential for AUM to hit $10 bill in the next 24 mo's. Yes, please! $URNM $URA $SPUT https://t.co/2jP1ZK0f4L" / X (twitter.com)

Greg Ip on X: "1/ I get why auto workers think they deserve a raise, or fewer hours. Isn't everyone else getting that? But the reality is the opposite: pay must track productivity and American factory managers' and workers' productivity is not keeping up. My column. https://t.co/VUqXiB2x3q" / X (twitter.com)

California's crypto bill: much still needs to be done (thearmchairtrader.com)

German carmakers in the line of fire of possible EU-China trade war | Financial Times (ft.com)

Instacart's shares briefly sink below their IPO price | Fortune similar price action for ARM..

The Remainers’ last economic argument against Brexit has crumbled (telegraph.co.uk)

Radical-Liberals and People’s Party have largest 2023 campaign budgets - SWI swissinfo.ch

Poland says it will no longer supply Kyiv with weapons (cnbc.com)

What are the best hotels in the world? See the list of the top 50 (cnbc.com)

Fab places! it's good to dream.. have u been to any of them ? Blessed to have been in two of them!

How Wales became an unexpected leader in the food and drink industry - Financial Times - Partner Content by Food & Drink Wales (ft.com)

Love Wales, a little Switzerland..

Investor Alex von Tobel: Lessons from Harvard ‘Happiness Lab’ (cnbc.com)

NASDAQ at risk of having a proper breakdown

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