Stéphan

Mar 283 min

Fed's Waller in no rush / 7y UST auction good / BoJ latest / DJT : Trump hype / U.S PCE tom / Happy Easter, Schöne Ostern, Joyeuses Pâques à toi et les tiens

  • Fed's Waller, known hawk, is in no hurry to cut (either real print lower in inflation or deteriorating economy is needed to change his mind), Oz equity markets hit new highs on softer than expected inflation data, 7y UST auction also went like a dream, 1bp through (not surprising with the usual month quarter-end bid in bonds), USD a little firmer, GOLD near highs, beware month/quarter end flows today, markets mostly closed (FX open) tomorrow for the PCE data + Powell

  • “A sticky inflation scenario is maybe not a baseline, but it is a realistic case. And I think investors and people looking at the economy need to start thinking about it:” Pimco’s Richard Clarida

  • The ECB may be able to lower interest rates “swiftly” even as workers receive large wage increases to catch up with two years of elevated inflation

  • Nearly half of all investors expect a "no landing" scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession, Deutsche Bank survey shows

  • Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse

  • Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks. Bosses sell hundreds of millions of dollars in company shares this quarter in sign that markets may be peaking? >>> why not, let's see about this, we all know valuations gone a little parabolic of late, so far though, valuations didn't matter

  • Trump Media : DJT : revenues 3mio and loosing cash - valuation $9bn, fwiw price-to-sales is 2000 - what a world, 'Trump hype' maybe but that's real $$$'s >>> Trump should add a few BTC to his balance-sheet, add 'Ai' to his company name and crypto tech group, and the shares will go to $1K and he will be one of the richest person in the world..!

  • BOJ Latest: Japan’s FX chief Masato Kanda vowed to take appropriate action against excessive swings without ruling out any options, saying he sees speculative moves behind the yen’s plunge. Most traders are now eyeing 152 per dollar as a possible trigger for direct intervention

  • JPM's Dubravko does not give up ''S&P 500 will plummet 20% and finish the year at 4,200'', one of the reason is ''Crude Oil could soar to $100/barrel before the U.S. Presidential Election due to Russia's production cuts warns JP Morgan''

  • Citi raises China 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.6% previously

  • The Fed has $950 bn in unrealized losses on their Treasury/MBS holdings

  • BOE's Haskel: I think rate cuts are a long way off
     


https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/forex/trading-conditions

Markets opening hours during Easter weekend

Fed's Waller is in 'no rush' to cut rates in 2024 (msn.com)

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board

Labor market pulse: Hiring strength for lower-income workers | Vanguard

Xi Jinping to China’s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatus | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

Federal Reserve Banks: Combined Financial Statements 2023 >>> unrealized losses, probably doesn't matter, or does it..eventually..

JPMorgan Says Stocks Are So Crowded They May Crack at Any Time (yahoo.com)

Irrespective of anyone's thinking, it's worth reading about the why it will go down in his view

US Inflation Is Looking Stickier Than Economists Expected, Clarida Says - Bloomberg

Nearly half of all investors expect a ‘no landing’ scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession, Deutsche Bank survey shows | Fortune

ECB Has Room to Cut Swiftly Despite Wage Rebound, Cipollone Says - Bloomberg

Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks (ft.com)

It is allowed for them to sell,, and the markets have rallied big last few months, so only natural but worth pointing out

Record sewage spills into England rivers and seas in 2023 - BBC News

Scandalous!

Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse, says AM Best - Reinsurance News

Cocoa Prices: Chocolatiers Between a Hammer and a Hard Place | Balance sheet (bilan.ch)

Prix du cacao: Les chocolatiers entre le marteau et l’enclume | Bilan

Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced in FTX collapse: What to know (qz.com)

Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Gold and silver miners appear to be having their own “second wave” of free cash flow growth.   Stock prices are cheap, fundamentals are improving, underlying metal prices are breaking out, market sentiment is in the toilet, and positioning is completely uncrowded.   If this is… https://t.co/bnVVxhl3kB" / X (twitter.com)

Blackstone CEO Reportedly Attended Xi Jinping Meeting (finews.asia)

Chinese President Xi Jinping tells U.S. CEOs to keep investing (qz.com)

And, 'in the corner of world gone mad' US man changes name to ‘Literally Anybody Else’ and announces US presidential bid | The Straits Times

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