Fed's Harker / GDPnow 5.91% / TRY / Powell's speech next up this afternoon

Jackson Hole meeting : all about the r*, all eyes and ears on J Powell who speaks at 1600 CET, Lagarde not until 2100 CET, for choice and since many of you asking, imho 'high for longer' is going to be the message (as opposed to systematically higher till something breaks..), wouldn't be shocked if Lagarde is a little 'dovish', after all these PMI sub 50..
WSJ-Timaraos's latest : The Fed's Jackson Hole conference sometimes gets treated as the Super Bowl of central banking when it might be better characterized as "nirvana for nerds" given the wonky paper discussions
Atlanta Fed GDPnow for Q3 is 5.91%
Fed's Harker : favoured remaining on hold for longer in two different interviews with MNI and CNBC yesterday
Rosenblatt raised its price target on NVDA to a Wall Sreet high of $1,100 (from $800), and maintaining its buy rating. $1100 would put NVDA on par to MSFT!
UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decade. More than 4,000 operators become insolvent within a year as cost inflation and housebuilding slowdown bite
TRY rallies as Turkey 'stuns' markets with the biggest rate hike in years!, the CB hiked by 750bps, USDTRY dropped from 27.5 to 25.5 approx, back to 26.50 TRY again
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right”, 'investing in the oil and gas complex is good for reducing CO2'
Highly likely' Prigozhin is dead but no 'definitive proof, says UK defence ministry

Markets :

SPX500 - NQ ''reversal'' in many short-term minds and comments this morning, few realized that 100 PE on NVDA was a little too rich, see Thread below too ! After a spectacular move in NQ and NVDA this year... so all needs to be put in relative terms...slightly overhyped price action in 2023 IMHO, that huge beat : mostly 'priced in'
USDollar slightly stronger, UST 10's 5bp higher to 4.25 again, 2y back to 5% all about the r*
Copper, metals recovering last few days, PALL futures now have the largest net spec short position on record

Didn't Get Invited to Fed's Mountain Retreat? Here's What to Watch (msn.com)

MS : The title this year is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. While Fed Chairs have sometimes moved mkts at Jackson Hole, Seth Carpenter suspects Powell will not signal a major shift. Seth suspects he will try to keep a hawkish tone; reiterate commitment to 2 percent inflation; reinforce the “higher for longer” theme; but refrain from giving explicit near-term guidance. The title of the symposium suggests some discussion of the neutral rate of interest, also called r*. Conceptually, if the policy rate is above r*, then monetary policy is slowing the economy, and if the policy is below r*, it is stimulating the economy. More generally, r* should have implications for debt sustainability, the level of the yield curve, and other asset prices. But in the best of times, estimating r* is hard; in a post-Covid world, it is doubly so. The mkt has to pay attention, of course, because a shift in r* should imply a shift in the exp path for the policy rate and thereby the yield curve as a whole

Jackson Hole may well showcase academic research suggesting that r* has risen - we think the Fed is done hiking, but we will only know after the fact if r* has risen

Fed Latest: Harker Sees Enough Hikes, Rates Holding in 2023 (yahoo.com)

Fukushima: China retaliates as Japan releases treated nuclear water - BBC News

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right' | Fox Business

UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decade | Financial Times (ft.com)

slow burn of higher rates AND government forcing repayment of covid loans... the big driver

Nothing to do with Brexit...??..

Edwin Hayward on X: "More and more stories about problems caused by Brexit are beginning to creep into the RW press. In some cases, it's a flood rather than a trickle! (Long list. Please expand tweet.) All the "Brexit reality" stories below were published within the last month: Express - Labour…" / X (twitter.com)

Bath air quality improves since introduction of clean air zone - BBC News

I'm not an accountant..! so won't make any comment just watch the slightly 'overhyped' price action this year on #NVDA ... neither long nor short ! Samantha LaDuc on X: "SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝 CoreWeave: Is backed by $NVDA Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA $NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat $NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound…" / X (twitter.com)

Michael Pettis on X: ""“Obviously, we’re following it, but the size of the problem is not yet sufficiently clear,” Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said of China’s economic issues." https://t.co/069uZNol86 via @bpolitics" / X (twitter.com)

Pakistan: Drone shows children trapped in cable car dangling over river canyon | World News | Sky News whaoo, watch ! amazing

Brady Dougan's Questionable Russia Connection (finews.asia)