Stéphan

Jan 254 min

FED's #BTFP to end 11th March & incr. rate on loans to banks / U.S Q4 GDP, PCE and ECB up next

  • Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 and the FED raised the rate on loans to banks issued under an emergency lending program launched last year, after borrowing surged in recent weeks as institutions took advantage of the attractive financing terms

  • Alibaba co-founders buy more than $200 million worth of shares, sending stock up (there will be more similar moves elsewhere, no doubt).. part of 'trying to improve sentiment' in addition to all the state interventions..

  • Qube Research & Technologies Ltd. has amassed a short bet of more than $1 billion against German companies amid a downturn in global demand that’s slowing Europe’s biggest economy., maybe not best idea to tell everyone ?

  • There are now 7 companies in the Trillion Dollar Club again. Meta has passed the $1tn mark, and Microsoft is now worth $3tn for the 1st time ever

  • Musk : Tesla says "our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.", Tesla Q4 revenues increased 3.5% YoY, its slowest growth rate since Q2 2020. Gross margins fell to 17.6% from 23.8% a year ago, largely a result of the deep price cuts on its vehicles >>> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new tech

  • China Financial News, a PBOC-backed media outlet, said Monday's State Council meeting indicated that more practical policies are coming

  • The ECB has asked some banks to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs

  • UAW’s Shawn Fain says Trump ‘doesn’t care about the American worker’ as union backs Biden for re-election


Markets :

  • TLT closed at its lowest since Dec 4th and is now again firmly below its 200dma, $61 billion 5y UST auction no bueno: 2 bps tail, highest dealer takedown since Sept 2022 (per BMO)

  • China Eq #HSI #CHINA50 etc . stay bullish, contrarian trade supported by enormous PBOC action, if CNH strengthens somewhat (or does not weaken on higher UST yields) it will confirm capital inflows

  • EURstoxx50 hitting 23y highs at 4'575, still far away from the 2000 highs nearer to 5'250

  • U.S. markets hitting news highs>>> weak 5Y UST auction, TSLA weaker, if you want to look for a few signs of potential weakness outside the Mag 7's there are plenty, but so far it didn't matter! >>> facts, RSI, overbought, % of stocks above 200dmas etc

  • Copper, Iron Ore and other commods generally a little higher (China action..)


US PCE Preview: March rate cut bets could pick up again | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  Market is seemingly focused on resilient growth in the US economy, and has pared March rate cut expectations for the Fed. While growth metrics remain mixed, focus will likely return to disinflation with core PCE this week pointing towards a move to 2% inflation by mid-2024. Soft core PCE below 0.2% MoM for December will likely increase the odds of a March rate cut again, pushing yields and dollar lower.

Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 | Reuters

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11

Fed Raises Rate on Emergency Loan Program to Stop Arbitrage (yahoo.com)

UAW endorses Biden, Fain says Trump 'doesn’t care about the American worker' | Fortune

Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Brazil-sized Guangdong, China's biggest province by GDP, is not one of the country's most overly-indebted provinces, but this article by Caixin nonetheless gives some very useful information about the way debt has surged. https://t.co/eqQmCpLrTA" / X (twitter.com)

China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough? (msn.com)

It's way oversold and unowned

ECB Asks Some Lenders To Monitor Social Media For Early Signs Of Bank Runs -sources (globalbankingandfinance.com)

That's one strange article..

DHedge Fund Qube Built a $1 Billion Short Bet Against Top German Companies | Financial Post

U.S. firms prefer India over China for supply chain needs despite risks (cnbc.com)

Alibaba stock up after Jack Ma and Joe Tsai buy shares (cnbc.com)

Tesla (TSLA) 2023 Q4 earnings (cnbc.com) >> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new technology (cnbc.com)

German auto suppliers struggle as Chinese EV makers rise | Fortune

Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Interesting Caixin analysis on China’s new rules on share buybacks for listed companies. For me the key impact of encouraging the use of share buybacks to support the stock market is its systemic (self-reinforcing) impact on overall volatility. https://t.co/CB6CaQbZ3Q" / X (twitter.com)

China says it's working to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea that have upended global trade (qz.com)

China's gold output, consumption rise in 2023-Xinhua (news.cn)

Tottenham Hotspur billionaire Joe Lewis pleads guilty to insider trading charges in US | UK News | Sky News - why do insider trade when a billionnaire ?...lots of war stories from while back on the FX world...

‘A tribal clique’: Lagarde denounces economists at Davos – Euractiv

Not great to be too critical of the troops like this...

Italy’s Meloni Picks Fight With Stellantis on Car Production (yahoo.com)

Social Security was a key issue in the fight for New Hampshire. Expect that to continue until November. (yahoo.com)

At Lindt&Sprüngli, "insider" sales continue fiercely – Inside Paradeplatz

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