FED Dec still 50bps after FOMC minutes / Claims highest since Aug / USD tumbles / CTA's chasing risk

FOMC Minutes : peak usd, peak inflation, peak 10y yields confirmed), A "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, the meeting minutes showed. Traders had expected the Fed minutes would affirm officials' softening stance after recent data showed a moderation in economic conditions >>> Powell speaks on 30th Nov - if he is not happy about easier financial conditions, he has an opportunity to say something then

BoC Gov Maclem says expects policy rate will need to rise further

And the U.S is in contraction Mfg PMI 47.6, Exp. 50.0, Last 50.4 Services PMI 46.1, Exp. 48.0, Last 47, Initial jobless claims hit the highest since mid-August as well.. In Japan, Nov factory activity shrank at quickest pace in 2 years

Sunak backs down against BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators

Korean CB hikes by only 25bps, growth to slow down sharply in 2023 (they were 1st major CB to hike in Asia in the cycle, another sign-confirmation of peak rates)

Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant, Apple supplier apologises for ‘technical error’ after violent clashes between workers and police

Renault is buying solar power from Voltalia over 15 years in what is France’s biggest renewable corporate power-purchase agreement

SPX500 levels remain the same - see below comment from GS on CTA's activity!

The price of Crude Oil is now, let's call if FLAT over 2022.... and energy stocks are up 65pct..

USDollar took a very decent tumble post FOMC minutes (LOW liquidities ahead of Turkey day).. EURUSD 1.0430+ key, USDCHF below 0.9450 area again, USDJPY 139 and below big statement, CABLE 1.2020+ all need to hold to keep USD bears in charge (USDCNH lagging on new covid cases), AUDUSD bullish as long as 0.6675+, and as noted recently the KIWI bird is flying

GOLD has room for higher into year-end, tech levels towards 1850$ should be tested, PLAT also interesting, while XAGUSD 22+ would be very interesting for the bulls!

Germany bond market sending recession alarm too, 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in about 30years, now -22bp

UST's and rates in general, we looked for and got for #peakrates, meaning higher for longer, not necessarily looking for any cuts in 2023, until, and only until employment and inflation ease quite a bit, we are getting NFP and U.S CPI ahead of next meeting, market remains fixated and cemented on 50bps for next meeting, things could change dramatically though in early 2023, U.S CPI could see some pretty large correction lower