Stéphan

Aug 28, 20234 min

Evergrande / SNB sight deposits / NVDA / Jackson Hole : 2way risk, data dependent

  • As expected, Powell rejects any idea that the inflation target would change in his Jackson Hole speech, "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target.". Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down, called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come >>> succeeded, on the ''he didn't want to rock the boat'', no clear guidance one way or another, data dependent

  • IMHO, many commentors saying that the Fed is making a mistake in hiking rates too high and too fast etc (they may well be wrong eventually, for the record think 'high for longer' is right , no more 'how fast and how high'.... the real mistake was to stick to 'transitory inflation' for far too long and still printing, increasing money supply by about 50% in 2-3years and buying MBS in the middle of a bubbly housing market

  • EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force

  • Urs Rohner, the former chairman of the major Swiss bank served as chairman of Savoy Hotel Baur en Ville owned by Credit Suisse

  • Saudi trade with China and India reached record of $175bn in 2022, it was barely $5bn in 2001, long-term geopolitics, BRICS+++

  • "GS index gamma is the shortest ever in their data set. GS estimate that dealers will need to sell -$2.5B worth of gamma per every 1% move lower (or vice versa)."This is a market exacerbator, not a muting factor". But it of course works both ways....

  • China scrapped the last of its Covid travel requirement measures

  • China's Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status."/Thread

  • Evergrande stock plunged 90% on Monday, as it reopened for trading after 17months suspension, which (at least partly) explains the sudden decision for China to reduce tax on stocks trading by half ? and local markets on multi year lows, contrarians ?

  • SNB total sight deposits week to 25th Aug CHF 471.4 bn vs CHF 476.2 bn prior


Markets :
  • Bonds initially sold-off a little during Powell speech, and pretty much closed unch

  • USDollar slightly firm(er), not a whole lot in it !

  • Equity markets liked the light end of day bond rally off lows, not a whole lot in it either, technically we getting back into 'sell or hedge territories' - perhaps after Aug month-end flows. The China tax move is probably only worth a very short--term bounce. NVDA given up most of the 'earnings' blip

  • Month-end flows to dominate early part of the week, which ends with NFP


Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down (yahoo.com)

The Kobeissi Letter on X: "You can't make this up: The S&P 7, a handful of technology stocks, are now up an incredible 54% this year. 3 weeks ago, the S&P 7 was up a massive 70%. Meanwhile, the remaining S&P 493 is up just 4%. These same stocks have accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gain this… https://t.co/T6gwTDmT8q" / X (twitter.com) same olde point, nice chart for perspective

Biden policies pushing Middle East closer to China and Russia, says US senator | Middle East Eye édition française

How America's biggest retailers will use tech to catch retail theft (cnbc.com)

The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force (yahoo.com)

How a U.S. steel shortage created a market bubble (cnbc.com)

Ships wait at Asian ports as retailers struggle to shift excess stock (cnbc.com)

Argentina is pushing international lending to its breaking point (yahoo.com)

Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status." @ZichenWanghere https://t.co/MS2HdHzKVE" / X (twitter.com)

China Evergrande’s Stock Plunges 87% As Trading Resumes After 17 Months (forbes.com)

Robin Brooks on X: "Argentina vs Turkey 1. Argentina and Turkey are at opposite ends of the planet, but have many bad things in common. Turkish Lira was kept artificially strong until the May 28 election, after which it collapsed (orange). Argentina's Peso collapsed after the Aug 13 primary (white). https://t.co/1PdGlosrRe" / X (twitter.com)

Heineken sells off Russian beer business for €1 - BBC News

Long been written off, suspect many foreign firms will have to do the same..

Urs Rohner Loses Prestigious Credit Suisse Mandate (finews.asia)

"CS Schweiz wird integriert, ihr Name verschwindet" - Videos - Inside Paradeplatz

How Ulez became a vigilante battleground | The Independent

UK financial firms ‘may be lending over £174m a month to at-risk gamblers’ | Gambling | The Guardian

How soaring cost of car insurance driving motorists to sell up | The Independent

must admit... many young drivers seeing their ins up between 50 and 100%, yes, it's true

Karl Rove hits Ramaswamy for ‘over-the-top’ debate performance that was ‘robotic’ | The Hill

Long way to go

Greek police arrest dozens for arson as EU’s largest-ever wildfires rage (msn.com)

this is nuts

NVIDIA - reversal off those highs on earnings, clearly no shareholder wants it to test much below 400bucks! or the end of May gap is at risk of being filled !

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