Stéphan

Sep 4, 20233 min

Crude prices UP / U.S congress face govt shut down in Sep / ARM / ECB Wunsch / Lithium

  • WTI rising to $85, no coincidence it is the 4th consecutive week of growth in the US SPR and Saudi cuts in production

  • Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises

  • US AUGUST ISM FACTORY INDEX RISES TO 47.6 FROM 46.4; EST. 47 - BBG *US AUGUST ISM PRICES-PAID INDEX RISES TO 48.4 FROM 42.6, stronger, Construction Spending 0.7%, Exp. 0.5%, Last 0.6%, and NFP a little stronger than expected too (back to normal levels, after a frantic turnover last 2-3years), Fed's Mester was also a little more hawkish earlier, and just like that 10's UST turned around from 4.05 to current 4.18 in the long-end (supply..)

  • Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown >> just as...US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion

  • ECB’s Wunsch cites persistent inflation to back the need to “do a little bit more”

  • China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S-it will help! >> Xi Vows to Continue Opening Up Market, on Own Terms - Bloomberg

  • The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals - Video below

  • Turkish Inflation Nears 60%, Piling Pressure On Central Bank - BBG

  • UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’. Company said to be eyeing $50bn-$55bn compared with $64bn its owner Softbank stated last month


Markets :
  • China wobbled, as usual China reacted and pressed on with plenty of new credit and cuts, U.S risks yet another gov shutdown towards the end of Sep, financial risk far too low, business cycle no more, whole new 'kind' of economy, as few Central Bankers talked about at Jackson Hole, Powell focused on employment. Interest rates likely to remain high for longer, consumer spending clearly depends on strength of job market

  • Crude : highest weekly close in a long while

  • CROSSJPY's rally again together with long-end yields

  • BONDS, steeper curve, long-end struggling, supply etc and more drama on debt ceiling coming

  • Equity markets hanging in there, valuation overall too high, rates to remain high for longer, clear stock picking market, it's not all good or all bad! * U.S markets close today


Saudi Crude Oil Exports Plummet as OPEC Giant Slashes Production (yahoo.com)

China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S. (cnbc.com)

Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown | CNN Politics >>> more drama no doubt

Christine Lagarde on inflation: high interest rates 'as long as necessary' | Fortune

UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’ | Arm | The Guardian

Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises | Business News | Sky News

Donald Trump's election fraud trial in Georgia will be livestreamed - BBC News Cant' wait !

Credit Cease? CS to Disappear in 2025 (finews.asia)

Covid: When to wear masks as cases rise, new variants emerge in U.S. (cnbc.com)

Not again please!

Tesla faces competition in Europe as local manufacturers fight back | Fortune

Judge withdraws from Medicare drug price case after stock ownership is revealed (cnbc.com)

Two Proud Boys members get lengthy prison terms for Capitol attack | US Capitol attack | The Guardian

Insider Business on X: "The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals https://t.co/TgP3dRMYGc" / X (twitter.com) thoughts ?

have a great start to the week

Team PVM

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