Stéphan

Sep 6, 20233 min

Crude higher, supply cuts extended / ECB's Knot, Fed's Mester & Waller / ARM / USD, UST yields..

  • China bans iPhone use for Government Officials at work....and strangely enough : A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China. SMIC, China's top chipmaker, has manufactured a 7-nanometer processor for Huawei's Mate 60 Pro—despite US chip sanctions against China

  • Crude tests November 2022 highs after OPEC/Russia extend supply cut to Dec 2023

  • The Treasury market looks to be pricing in the 'old normal' interest rates, ie a world where bond yields need to be beyond what short-term yields imply..this would be a Very bumpy ride and look/feel very unusualformany, particularly with market structure, supply, TGA etc, which makes it very hard to work out for many

  • German Industrial Orders fell by 11.7% vs 4% expected

  • With oil prices rising again, investors are starting to worry again about even higher long-term bond yields ahead + supply is huge over next few months (known known but still)

  • Wie viel teurer wird er Strom in deiner Gemeinde? Trouve le prix d'electricité dans ton village pour 2023 - link ci-dessous

  • ARM is seeking up to a $52 billion valuation in its blockbuster U.S. IPO

  • Saudi to extend voluntary cut of 1m B/D until end of Dec 2023, Russia too 300K B/D

  • Fed Governor Waller agrees the central bank can 'proceed carefully' on interest rates and Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemploymen

  • ECB’s Knot Says Markets may underestimate September hike chance, he is an 'über hawk' so he would say this, only 6bp priced in for next meeting, clearly would be huge surprise if they did hike, unlikely though

  • JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises

  • Japan's Matsuno says watching FX moves with high sense of urgency, more than words will be needed top turn JPY, including YCC change etc

  • BBG - China is considering introducing a law that would ban the wearing of clothes that "hurt the feelings" of others. Perpetrators could face fines or even jail....seriously?!

  • BMW, Mercedes launch biggest EV push yet to catch Tesla with new models

  • Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced (one of the many reasons why rents went through the rood of late, specifically in towns..)


Markets :
  • A lot of Central Bank meetings in september

  • USDollar remsin strong(er), with yields high/er) for longer, even USDCHF look to finally be joining it topside! USDJPY could and should get a little bumpy from here though with BoJ behind the scenes, thus look to sell a bit of CROSSJPY's on risk off days..

  • Equity markets drifting down, it was and still is time for a 'hedging trade'

  • Crude higher, can we get to 95-100$ ? this won't help inflationary pressures!


US Bond Bulls Are Too Optimistic as Yields Inch Back Up, AlphaSimplex Says - Bloomberg

Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemployment (msn.com)

De-Dollarization: US Risks Losing Tool Used to Fight Past Economic Crises (businessinsider.com)

Chip design firm Arm seeks up to $52 billion valuation in blockbuster U.S. IPO (cnbc.com)

Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz

Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz check out prices of electricity in your Gemeinde for next year !

Oil prices spike as Saudi Arabia, Russia extend 1.3 million barrel a day oil cut through December (qz.com)

A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China (qz.com)

China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials at Work (msn.com)

Enrique Tarrio: Former Proud Boys leader jailed for 22 years over US Capitol Attack | Evening Standard

North Korea hackers stole crypto to fund nuclear program: TRM, Chainalysis (cnbc.com)

Clashes erupt in Sweden's third largest city after another Quran burning. At least 3 are detained | Watch (msn.com) strewth!

Singapore seizes millions in Credit Suisse, Julius Baer accounts (theedgesingapore.com)

They started with local banks, now onto foreign banks..

BMW, Mercedes launch biggest electric vehicle push yet to catch Tesla (cnbc.com)

How China became king of new nuclear power, how U.S. could catch up (cnbc.com)

europe? UK ?

Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced | Airbnb | The Guardian

CABLE working it's way down still - above 1.275+ on close and it will look 'wrong' and painful for £ shorts

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