Stéphan

Apr 93 min

Commods, previous metals, gold, silver keep on trucking / USDJPY teasing BoJ / FED Funds down to -2- cuts pricing in '24 ahead of U.S CPI and FOMC minutes tom

  • Commodities, copper, crude, gold, platinum etc firmer still

  • Fed Funds futures now pointing to just -2- cuts in 2024, with chance of a July cut fading, a strong CPI will push rate cut expectations to Sep immediately tomorrow >> the argument for cuts is dissipating - no landing looking at NFP's ! au contraire, we continue to look for a #highforlonger scenario, markets will test BoJ with USDJPY 152+

  • Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trading company, has made more money in the last 3 years than during the past 30 years combined ($13bn revenues in 2023 alone..)

  • The S&P 500 hasn't had a -2% day since February 21, 2023. "This is the 12th longest such streak since 1928:" Citi's Stuart Kaiser

  • DB: "How can credit sell-off in a world where growth is strong & the Fed is dovish? The largest risk is the market doubting the Fed's ability to cut in 2025 & 2026....Even after last Friday's jobs report, we are still pricing more 2025 & 2026 cuts than at the start of this year"

  • US will not accept Chinese imports decimating new industries, Yellen says (EV..)

  • The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025. Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days

  • Jamie Dimon warns inflation, interest rates may remain elevated, 'soft landing odds are 'lower' than markets believe'...indeed last NFP another +"300K...last 3 NFP were much higher in fact

  • GOLDMAN: ".. Investors are concerned that recent management commentary from consumer facing companies suggests some signs of weakness. $COST missed consensus US sales estimates for the month of February. $LULU, $NKE, and $ULTA all recently issued disappointing forward guidance. Last month, $MCD CFO called out a 'challenging consumer environment' while this week $DRI missed on revs." [Kostin]

  • Insider selling in the first quarter reached its highest level in over 3 years, with total insider sales nearing $25 billion, according to Smart Insider.

  • India just reported record monthly imports of #silver
     


A lot going in the world of #Gold #Gold miners and in Silver, just the beginning of higher vol in weeks and months to come China Gold-Buying Frenzy Sparks Chaos In ETFs | ZeroHedge

IGWT Gold Compass | ingoldwetrust.report

USD/JPY approaches the key 152.00 level with BoJ intervention looming (fxstreet.com)

Hamas studies truce proposal six months into Gaza war (msn.com)

Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com)

Persistent inflation may lead to interest rates of 8% or more, Jamie Dimon warns - MarketWatch

Let's hope he is wrong, this would be some kind of Armageddon for many many buisinesses

Jamie Dimon warns inflation, interest rates may remain elevated | Fox Business

The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025. Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025… https://t.co/NKvt4m0O7Y" / X (twitter.com)

Janet Yellen says tariffs are on the table to stop a 'China Shock' (qz.com)

Trading house Vitol reports another bumper year of profit on higher gas trading volumes (msn.com)

Tesla Goes to Trial Over Autopilot Crash That Killed Apple Engineer (businessinsider.com)

No, Elon Musk is not our Henry Ford - by Ed Conway (substack.com)

Billion-dollar money laundering case: Man who jumped off balcony gets 14 months' jail - CNA (channelnewsasia.com)

BP expects rise in first-quarter upstream energy output | Reuters

Inflation..., pushing folks to turn to stealing Cargo theft up 57% in 2023 vs. 2022, new CargoNet data shows (cnbc.com)

In Photos: Total Solar Eclipse Dazzles Skywatchers Across North America (forbes.com)

#XAGUSD could go a long way

BRENT - looks like we are heading for 100bucks

NASDAQ - all about US CPI and rates expectations for 2024 - down to 2now, do we go down to 1 cut ?

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