Stéphan

May 22, 20233 min

China bans Micron / G7 communiqué / Powell / U.S debt ceiling drama continues this week

  • G7 is really something of the past in GDP terms vs RoW (Thread-chart)

  • Quel drama : US Debt Ceiling: Debt ceiling talks are back on. Biden and McCarthy agreed to resume negotiations over avoiding a default a day after both sides broke off contact amid partisan finger-pointing. The House speaker said he had a "productive" call with the president, who's returning from G7, and that they'd meet in person today

  • China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects >> at G7 : Biden Says US-China Relations Set to Improve ‘Very Shortly’. US president says ‘silly balloon’ derailed ties with China

  • FT - Higher rates combined with rising pensions and healthcare costs are set to weigh on states’ finances

  • Powell said Friday interest rates may not need to rise as high as previously expected with the bank crisis tightening credit conditions, even with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target

  • ‘In a lot of the world, the clock has hit midnight’: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

  • German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey (DAX all time highs..)

  • WSJ-JPMorgan now has more than 13% of the nation’s deposits and 21% of all credit-card spending...concentration of risk?

  • Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge


Markets:
  • BTC : often hear around ''if bitcoin can't really rally on a risk of US default, then..'

  • -SPX500 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, but looking at DAX etc, the bears may well be more 'upset' in the short-term >>> pure game of low vol and liquidities piling into megacaps (mainly)

  • USD showed/showing signs of strength since last week or so, as UST yields picked up again (TGA stories put a bit of pressure on UST prices). USDTRY nearly 20, USDZAR 19.50, even USDJPY had a great week last week overall (and yet USDCHF remains sickly..CHFJPY!)

  • Crude, commods, stead near their recent lows


G7 Summit communique released | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Debt ceiling talks a headline risk nuisance this week. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com)

Fed’s Powell: Rate decisions made on 'meeting by meeting' after aggressive hikes (yahoo.com)

jeroen blokland on Twitter: "The G7 really is something of the past. https://t.co/SYCRaVcUQR" / Twitter

China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects - BBC News and Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "To put things into perspective: US Chipmakers are heavily reliant on #China. Companies like Qualcomm, Broadcom and Intel. deliver billions of chips to the country, which puts the components inside electronic products that are shipped all over the world. (via BBG) https://t.co/3gZ9qNKbLW" / Twitter

Cover Story: China’s Effort to Move Mountain of ‘Hidden Debt’ Faces Uphill Climb - Caixin Global

China calls in loans to Pakistan, Kenya, dozens more | Fortune

Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge - Caixin Global

phyron on Twitter: "CDS Volume is Miniscule and Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means... from GS DTCC data show just $11.6bn of gross notional at the end of March 2023, Miniscule in relationship to the markets. However, rather than signifying high odds of default, or indeed expect credit losses,… https://t.co/28EPRF2aki" / Twitter

Ageing populations ‘already hitting’ governments’ credit ratings | Financial Times (ft.com)

Ageing populations are hitting public finances across the world, with rating agencies warning that recent interest rate rises have increased the impact of higher pensions and healthcare costs

Greece's ruling Conservatives win vote but fall short of majority | Reuters

Northern Ireland elections: Sinn Fein on course to become largest party in local government as counting continues | Politics News | Sky News

Deep freeze sets between Germany and Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch

Ukraine war live: Russia deploys 16 types of missiles in attack on Dnipro (telegraph.co.uk)

Mount Etna eruption grounds flights at Sicily’s Catania airport | Evening Standard

Flights resuming this morning though - good

Adani Enterprises share price jumps 15% today, hits upper circuit; group stocks m-cap back above Rs 10 lakh cr | The Financial Express remember that Hindenburg story!.. good grief

Japan creditors set to challenge Credit Suisse AT1 write down - SWI swissinfo.ch

German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey | Reuters

Why food bills aren't shrinking - five things to know - BBC News

Braverman asked aides to help her avoid speeding points (thelondoneconomic.com)

Where are all those Brexit benefits? (prospectmagazine.co.uk)

Don't look too hard, you won't find many

have a great start to the week

team PVM

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