Stéphan

Aug 29, 20233 min

Brazil & China corn deal / UK inflation / EV Vinfast / Month-end flows + U.S PCE and NFP up next

  • Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years

  • Brazil and China are strengthening their trade ties with a massive corn deal in 2023. Brazil is set to export 5 million tonnes of corn to China

  • Jackson Hole recap: Fed rate hikes likely on hold for ‘several meetings’ - ''high for longer'', though Powell clearly emphasized on the tightness of the labour market keeping the economy going, so employment data key, anything below 200K NFP and the market will shift and bonds rally, at least on the headline, medium term issue of supply still there..

  • Germany's governing coalition has agreed on a new basic child benefit allowance at an initial cost of around 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) from 2025. IW institute cuts GDP forecast, now expects contraction of up to 0.5% for 2023

  • China & the US agreed to have their commerce ministers meet at least once a year in an effort to improve ties. Gina Raimondo said after meeting with Wang Wentao in Beijing that trade and transparency can stabilize relations, and told her counterpart that the Biden administration had no intention of hindering Chinese economic progress

  • UK : Prices rose 6.9% in the year to August, down from 8.4% in July - BRC >>> The figures do not mean things are getting cheaper, but that prices are increasing at a slower rate than they did previously

  • Shares of Vietnamese EV maker Vinfast surged 21% on Monday, extending a rally from last week that more than quadrupled its market value to $160 billion

  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Vladimir Putin will hold talks in Sochi on Sep 4th

  • US housing payment for new homes is now as high as 51% of the median household income, which is the highest since the mid 1980's

  • Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future


Markets :
  • Pretty quiet going into month-end..Equity markets globally helped by moves in China (short of long-term impact ?), CROSSJPY's closing August on the highs, USDJPY trades above the levels where BoJ intervened last year. USDCNH 7.30 still no exactly much lower after those interventions this month

  • Bonds 'stable' ahead of PCE and NFP - employment data now pretty key IMHO, sincel Powell mentioned it so many times during his speech in Jackson Hole


Chinese equity narrative turns to hope of a turnaround | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) listen and open the charts too PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com)

Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Dallas Fed respondents: "High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before. In addition to reshoring heavy activity, supply-chain issues, lack of qualified labor and interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates and give confidence to the industrial segments to plan growth." (Dallas may not be whole reflection of the U.S, but there you go)

Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com)

Brazil May Export 5 million Tonnes of Corn To China in 2023 | Czapp

Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years | Czapp

Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future (msn.com)

German government agrees new 2.4 billion euro basic child allowance (yahoo.com)

Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters

Number of men in Germany working part-time increases - The Local

Price rises in shops at lowest for nearly a year - BBC News

Better news, still far too high though

China halves stamp duty on stock trades to boost flagging market | Reuters

The reaction to the latest move was much more muted than when Beijing last took similar steps, in 2008

Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The importance of this chart cannot be overstated. Investors expecting global inflation to decelerate is the most consensus view in the history of the data, even lower than during the Global Financial Crisis. This is consistent with how market participants are the most bullish… https://t.co/pCvcSSNQ27" / X (twitter.com)

Red Cross gifted gold bars left on a Swiss train - SWI swissinfo.ch

Who's were they ?!

New California city backed by big names in Silicon Valley: report (cnbc.com)

Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters

Whaooo... is that isn't bubbly ! good for the longs though clearly..2nd largest car

Ulez expanded to include whole of outer London - BBC News

DAX - correcting back to trendline support line (now resistance)

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