StĂŠphan

Apr 244 min

April U.S PMI 🔽 & EU PMI ⬆️ / #ARKK 🔽 / AUD CPI up, rate cut exp gone / Crude vols down, less geopolitical risk / Big U.S earnings tom and PCE Friday

  • The U.S administration wants to implement a 30% tax on the electricity used by #crypto miners... but wont touch data centers which is expected to consume 5x more electricity by 2026 according to the IEA (they should too..)

  • Why the U.S. government is working on sanctions targeting some Chinese banks

  • US PMIs: downside surprise for Apr, with manuf dropping back into contractionary territory at 49.9 (Consensus was 52.0) and services also dropping to a 5mos lows of 50.9, and services employment subcomponent fell to 47.3, the first negative reading since June 2020, meanwhile : Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth and Ifo business-climate index rose for a 3rd month to 89.4 in April from 87.9 in March, beating consensus expectations of 88.8 mainly thx to the service sector

  • Australia Q1 inflation slowdown disappoints, rate cut bets gone for 2024, Australia is “nowhere near” beating its inflation problem

  • US to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine ‘this week’ after Senate aid approval

  • The U.S. economy is unbelievable and booming says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A week ago, he said stagflation could be coming, 6 months ago, he said this was the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades (why so much talking?)

  • The correction in stocks isn't over, warns JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, who still believes that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 4,200, and after being wrong over the last 18 months, Wilson has decided to no longer make bold predictions about the S&P 500, and 'the pullback in U.S. Stocks isn't over warns Goldman Sachs which notes that CTAs are modelled to sell stocks no matter what'...

  • Crude implied vol structure coming off, suggest less geopolitical risk.. (CHF, JPY, not a surprise GOLD had a profit taking dip too-war premium)

  • ''No other advanced economy runs budget deficits as big as the US and no other advanced economy finances its current deficit as aggressively with short-term issuance as the US (red). The US fiscal train is running completely out of control...''

  • Chinese Corporate Bond Yields fall to lowest level in history >>> CNH pressure coming ?

  • TSLA : negative cash flow of -$2.5bn in Q1, at this rate....2-3years left

  • Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Funds Experience Rapid Decline

  • BoJ meeting coming up ''BoJ to discuss impact of accelerating YEN weakness, decision meeting to begin on 25th-Nikkei'' .... talk talk not enough, you need to walk
     


Balanced view as always from Ole - to the point What drives the gold and silver correction? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Australia Q1 inflation slowdown disappoints, rate cut bets gone | Reuters

Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth | snaps | ING Think

Traders Add Bets That Fed to Skip Interest-Rate Cuts This Year - Bloomberg

Robin Brooks on X: "No other advanced economy runs budget deficits as big as the US and no other advanced economy finances its current deficit as aggressively with short-term issuance as the US (red). The US fiscal train is running completely out of control... https://t.co/5NSeMbjDJn" / X (twitter.com)

ARK Destroyed More Wealth Than Any Asset Manager Over the Previous Decade – MishTalk

ARKK team has done well for their bank accounts though..

Cathie Wood on losing $14bn, Trump and where the UK has an edge over the US (msn.com)

Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Funds Experience Rapid Decline (msn.com)

#highforlonger ...

U.S. Is Preparing To Sanction Chinese Banks Supporting Russia, Report Says (forbes.com)

Carl Quintanilla on X: "FT: “.. Two decades ago the US produced about 7mn barrels a day of petroleum .. Now the US produces almost 20mn .. The prolific Permian Basin .. pumps more oil than Kuwait, Iraq or the UAE, three of Opec’s powerhouses.” 🇺🇸 @FT #OOTT @KevRGordon 🇺🇸 @FT #OOTT @KevRGordon https://t.co/AAEhMR5QDq https://t.co/DrDG2iKMZO" / X (twitter.com)

Senate passes aid for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, TikTok bill (cnbc.com)

As expected

Biden is asking Congress to kill the American Bitcoin mining industry (cointelegraph.com)

Ex-Trump attorney: Former president’s testimony would ‘significantly increase’ conviction chances | The Hill

PBOC Steps Up Rhetoric Over Long-End Government Bond Rally - Bloomberg

Gold’s Record-Setting Rally May Have Its Roots in Chinese Frenzy - Bloomberg (archive.ph)

of course it does... which also means without china, price action struggles

Lombard Odier's Big Bankruptcy with Ex-CS Stars – Inside Paradeplatz overselling

kcc-360-tour (glencore.com)

Google workers protest AI and cloud contracts with Israel (qz.com)

Recap: Tesla stock surges despite plunging profits as Musk talks robotaxis and cheaper cars (yahoo.com) :-) Tesla Sales Plummet as Democrats Stop Buying the Electric Cars Due to Elon Musk (politicalflare.com)

Apple iPhone sales in China fall almost 20% in worst quarter since 2020 (qz.com) >>> remember China warnings, banning APPL products, they all buying Huawei now.. and here we are 2 quarters later (APPL shares moved down on this in Q1..one of the easiest hedge-short of the Mag 7 we discussed back then)

Switzerland violates right to protest: Amnesty International - SWI swissinfo.ch

Russia-Ukraine war live: US to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine ‘this week’ after Senate aid approval (theguardian.com)

#NASDAQ

Platinum - #XPT - patience

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